Maurice Earls writes: The Trump presidency is in the process of taking full political control in the United States. This is something which the framers of the American constitution very much wished to avoid. Institutional checks were written in. The houses of congress and the laws of the Republic have long operated as formidable constitutional checks on presidential power. There have been many times when they were needed and used. Today is different. Congress has been self-neutered by its own Republican members. Trump is not bothering to seek congress’s approval and congress is not bothering to object. The courts are under daily attack. Trump himself has joined in, as have JD Vance and others. Elon Musk has declared the need for ‘an immediate wave of judicial impeachments’. The unavoidable conclusion is that Trump is in the process of overturning the US constitution. An unprecedented politics is now under construction in the United States with radical domestic and international ambitions.
Europe’s relationship with the United States has been one of subordination for some eighty years. Many in Europe found the supine a perfectly acceptable position, compensating with a cultural sneer. However, as the thunder of American hooves and talk of economic war is heard, alarm is growing. The fear of being squelched militarily by the Russians and economically by the Americans has concentrated minds. Many are now beginning to stand up, joining Emanuel Macron and some others who have long been on their feet. Happily, it seems there is little appetite in the EU for rolling over in an easterly or westerly direction. The absence of a proper army is of course something of a drawback, as is the legacy of strategic laziness, but perhaps Trump is not the only one who can move quickly.
The Irish, whose economy is hugely dependent on the US, are feeling particularly jittery. In response they have become nervously pro-active in a knee-jerk sort of way. Plans are being urgently generated to leverage our cultural, business and diplomatic assets with the Prince of Orange. Eight ministers will be in America for St Patrick’s Day.
There is a profound weakness in this proposed diplomatic offensive, which reflects more Panglossian optimism than political reality. Simon Harris has declared that there is time to negotiate with the US before tariffs come into force. What is he thinking? It is as if the state has not bothered to study MAGA. MAGA intends to bring Europe dramatically to heel. The only thing that will conceivably incline Trump to reverse is if his actions cause serious economic damage within the US. What is about to descend on the Irish economy – albeit slowly – has been a long time coming but we have not used the time available to overhaul our strategic thinking.
Even if our arguments, which are plausible enough when abstracted from political reality (Ryanair does buy an awful lot from Boeing), are well received, and that is a big if, there is no possibility our actions could save the EU from Trump’s malign attention. (Irish visitors to the US in March will certainly not be EU plenipotentiaries.) Putting Europe down is part of a larger Trump geo-political objective. Since Ireland will (one assumes) not be choosing Boston over Brussels anytime soon, our trade relations with the US cannot be separated out from those of the EU. Our interests lie with the European resistance and response to MAGA.
Instinctively, Trump will probably wish to be just as hostile to Ireland as to the EU in general, perhaps even more so. The culture of positivity towards Ireland and the never-ending help, without charge, to the Irish in sorting out their local difficulties is a thing of the past. That was part of the Democratic-Party-dominated old-style US political culture which MAGA despises and whose day is done. There are many in the US who would delight in sending a few good kicks in our direction, and that is without taking our principled stand on Gaza into account.
As it is, Trump has said he plans to target pharmaceutical imports for special attention declaring: ‘What it’s going to do is bring pharmaceuticals back to this country: much more important than the money.’ There is no prospect of talking MAGA down. If we are permitted to present the shamrock bowl in March, it may well be met with a humiliating and undiplomatic dressing down.
Of course we should send some emissaries to the US to keep contacts and communication alive, but our real efforts should be on the eastern front. We need to demonstrate solidarity and eager support for the emerging new European politics rather than sending economic messages which may be read in Europe, to our disadvantage, as muted Irexit noises. Europe is the place we will be needing friends. It is important we hold on to those we have. (See postscript for recent positive Irish developments)
On the home front we need to coordinate all relevant agencies of state, possibly under the successful Enterprise Ireland, to encourage existing businesses which are exporting goods and services to the EU. We need to put our resources into discovering and developing new products and services which will sell to the 450m population of the Union.
In the longer term things could work out well for Europe. The America-first shift in the US may see large swathes of the continent escape the condition of cultural and military dependence, finally becoming an autonomous political entity in the world and thus realising an EU version of the Robert Emmet dream. Europe has the money and economic clout to do this, but it is not clear that its ensemble of nation states has the capacity to slip the anchors of local interest and act coherently in the common European interest. It will be a good sign if the Irish cow lobby and other similar lobbies across Europe are induced to step aside.
There is, of course, another problem. Europe is falling apart. The far-right Herbert Kickl, memorably described as a wolf in wolf’s clothing, looked until a week or so ago a good bet to become Austrian chancellor. Those talks have now broken down but Kickl leads the country’s largest party. The far right is running the show in Italy and Belgium, is the largest party and with a strong influence in government in the Netherlands, and is supporting right wing government in Sweden and enjoying an apparent veto power over the French government. Then we have Hungary and Slovakia inside the gates and in a position to challenge EU resistance to Trump or Putin (Meloni in Italy, significantly, does not seem to share the widespread far-right softness on Putin). And there are more from the far right on the way up, all lukewarm on, if not hostile to, federal Europe.
One possibility is that, as the European public registers the existential dangers facing the Union, the far right will find it must align with Europe’s fundamental geopolitical interests or lose support. Significantly, none of them is talking any longer of leaving the EU. Brexit pulled them into line and this can happen again.
As if the far right and an authoritarian United States are not enough, the EU has a large economic problem: low to no growth. Without growth the Union cannot hope to survive as a coherent polity and – at least from this writer’s point of view – as a civilisational and moral beacon, built on the best of the Enlightenment and Romantic heritages. Mario Draghi has shown the way to economic growth in his competitiveness report published in September. Now, with its just published Competitiveness Compass, the EU commission has effectively adopted Draghi’s report. This involves radical action on many fronts including accelerating trade across EU states. It remains to be seen if Ireland will have sufficient bandwidth to vigorously support this document as it should, given the resources it is directing towards the US.
The European security crisis is likely to enhance EU political and economic integration. The desire for speedy action is spreading beyond the usual suspects. The Belgian minister of defence, Theo Francken has said Europe’s defence industry should consolidate in a small number of large players able to meet Europe’s defence needs, adding: ‘We need someone who says, okay guys, we’re in deep sh*t… we need to take really big steps ahead.’ If it happens in defence, it will happen elsewhere and while there is much in this which would be positive for Europe, the danger for a country like Ireland is marginalisation. The way to avoid that is to focus on Europe and not to facilitate the opinion that we are owed nothing.
Meanwhile, back in the USA, democratic and government norms are in the process of being dismantled. Great chunks of the US Enlightenment heritage are being discarded as power is concentrated at the centre, with all wings of government: administration, finance, law and security progressively subordinated to presidential control.
There are numerous reports in the US media of Trump’s unconstitutional actions. He has begun, without legal authority, to dismantle the nonpartisan civil service. Career public servants are being fired because they are not trusted ‘to assist in faithfully implementing the President’s agenda’. He has illegally by-passed congress to freeze foreign aid. Federal grants and loans have been illegally frozen. One academic commented: ‘It’s hard to think of anything more destructive of our constitutional order than a claim that a president can either spend funds that have not been appropriated or refuse to spend funds that have.’
Trump’s actions so far are consistent with the policies and recommendations of the far-right Project 2025, some of whose prominent figures have been appointed to government office. Their objective is to have virtually all power centralised under the president and to remove the traditional checks on presidential power. The political philosophy of 2025 has been described as Christian Nationalism and it aspires, as soon as is feasible, to impose an ultra-conservative social vision throughout society. Project 2025 has anti-democracy at its core. In order to advance its priorities, it favours numerous restrictions on democratic participation and has no interest in winning consent for its vision. It’s about top-down cultural and political engineering. There is no account offered of what the fate will be of the diverse populations within the US who do not identify with this narrow vision. Major pushback against this simplistic programme seems probable.
MAGA didn’t come from nowhere. Despite the many decades of political mythology which posited a nation united in its commitment to democracy – much promulgated by the Democratic Party – actual American devotion to democracy was always far from universal. The now politicised Evangelical population, whose presence long pre-dates the Enlightenment, is committed to the absolute, literal truth of the Bible. It is hardly surprising that this population does not see democracy as remotely comparable in value. The large ‘conservative’ population which believes in a strong elite-led state, and the large racist population, have no reason to attach much in the way of moral or political value to democratic processes. And, it seems, a significant segment of the poor and working poor are, at best, indifferent to the practice and value of elections. (This latter group will almost certainly be the first to experience acute buyer’s remorse.) Mainstream Republican voters have, without so much as a backward glance, also joined the MAGA wave. The neo-liberal free market enthusiasts have joined up too, having concluded that the Christian Nationalist vision offers capital the potential for greater freedom than social libertarianism. Those who adhere to the absolutes of the latter philosophy have lost out. They are effectively MAGA road kill. Elon Musk is a capitalist who has joined the Christian Nationalists. He now describes himself as a cultural Christian. If we add to all this the conspiratorial work of the well-funded intellectual apparatchiks of the anti-democracy movement who have been beavering and plotting for decades, both the election result and subsequent wholesale attack on the constitution become more comprehensible. The hidden America with its new friends is now in charge. Free and fair elections in 2028 is not their priority.
In his inaugural address Trump declared ‘The spirit of the frontier is written into our hearts.’ This is the new touchstone. The frontier spirit, which was celebrated on February 9th with a presidential executive order enhancing the already extensive right to bear arms, has clearly little to do with democracy or of course inclusivity. (If in doubt one could ask the Navajo native Americans recently questioned as suspected illegal immigrants.) In MAGAland the mythology of the genocidal frontier is to replace the post WWII political mythology of the US love for democracy.
It is the exercise of raw power that is admired in Magaland. The new macho noise in business and society is a spinoff from this. In this new world, Adolf Hitler, once the epitome of evil, is now widely admired for getting stuff done. Elon Musk felt safe giving the Nazi salute from the podium during the Trump inauguration. The next time he gives the straight arm salute, he will perhaps be mounted and wearing a cowboy hat.
Post-WWII America was unchallengeable outside the communist world, and that could be successfully contained. The US could and did have its way. It was called ‘the American Century’ for good reason. Russia as a competing economic model was dismissed as ‘Upper Volta with rockets’. Nobody could match the productive power and energy of the US. But nothing lasts forever. Russia could be successfully contained and deterred by the fabulously wealthy and powerful US in the post-WWII period. That won’t work with China, which is building a military command centre buried deep in the earth and vastly bigger than the Pentagon. The reality is that China has credible ambitions to surpass the US economically and militarily. It is hardly surprising that this has concentrated minds. Trump’s intelligentsia appear to believe that a culturally united, geographically focused, centralised state which focuses its power and wealth on strong government will survive and thrive peacefully alongside China and Russia, that it is no longer necessary or wise for the US to spread itself thinly around the globe in the ruinously expensive exercise of soft and not-so-soft power. Instead America will play a ruthless multi-polar game. That is ultimately what MAGA geopolitics is about, power-sharing with China from a position of strength. Trump has already suggested that the US, China and Russia agree to massively cut their military budgets. Marco Rubio has said that an end to the Ukrainian conflict could see ‘incredible opportunities’ to partner with the Russians geopolitically.
MAGA is not about fortress America. It is about the agreed division of the globe into zones of control, and the US wants a good chunk. Trump intends the US to wring concessions from subject peoples within its sphere of entitlement. He wants vassal states to contribute monies to the US rather than the other way around. A people’s place on the spectrum of subordination depends entirely on their negotiating strength. The Palestinians have none. Asked on what basis he could propose the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, Trump replied ‘US authority’. A substantial part of the Middle East is seen as being within the American zone. By telling the Palestinians that he plans to develop their land as summer homes for the rich, he is making his philosophy of total political dominance clear in the vilest way imaginable.
Trump’s numerous threats against erstwhile allies, particularly the EU, the richest and most powerful one, should be read in this context. He has asserted his right to determine the outcome of disputes on Europe’s borders. Europe has insultingly been excluded from the negotiation with Putin. He has sent JD Vance to Europe to denounce the Union’s democratically elected leaders. This is what can happen when you fail, as the EU has done, to develop adequate autonomous defences.
While Trump is delighted to threaten Europe with Russia and generally put on the frighteners, it would be illogical for him to permit Russia to seize EU territory. Europe is too rich a dish, and crucial in the economic balance against China. But history is not always logical. European intelligence services say Putin is readying his armies to invade a European NATO country. Danish intelligence claims he will be ready in six months.
Unquestionably, something very resolute is required from Europe. Emergency rearmament to a high level has the capacity to deter Russia and ultimately chasten the US. The Germans, in particular, will have to step up and step up quickly. (See postscript for post-election positive developments in Germany)  If the Irish think a few gestures will do they are mistaken. If they are not seen to play their part they will be regarded as cowards, which will have long-term negative consequences. In Munich Micheál Martin has, quite unnecessarily, poured cold water on the idea of an autonomous European military force.(See postscript for recent positive Irish developments) As the US – the major component of NATO – appears to be abandoning Europe, the idea is gaining traction. France, of course, is for it and Poland is open to the idea. Others will probably follow. National armies in Europe which fold into NATO could just as easily fold into a European army. It is understandable that some European countries in NATO might be cautious about such a proposal but for a non-NATO country with a minuscule army, such as Ireland, to oppose the idea prompts the question, how does it envisage Europe and the EU defending itself?
Returning to MAGA, assuming Trump’s recklessness does not lead to numerous wars, will the MAGA geo-political vision work? Quite possibly, in part at any rate. If it is seen to deliver the prospect of long-term peace with China and Russia, it is hard to imagine a voluntary return to the status quo ante. However, Trump’s ambition to wholly control and exploit his ‘allies’ and those zones of the globe which he feels fall to the US may be a different matter. Some parts of the world he wishes to treat as vassals are too rich and have too many options for his simplistic feudal-like vision. Europe will probably be the area which will determine MAGA’s failure in this regard.
Geographically ‘far-flung’ places like Japan, with a lot to lose, may feel, that for now they have little option but to bend the knee and pay up. Others will respond economically, and that response may do great damage to MAGAland, which underestimates the economic strength and options of many of its erstwhile allies.
The other question is whether there will be substantial US resistance to Trump’s attacks on the constitution and the imposition of Christian Nationalist social values which, it may be assumed, will follow in due course. Thus far the Democrats are sticking with what is left of the constitution and going to the courts on a near daily basis in response to Trump’s actions. Unfortunately, this is likely to prove insufficient. There are already signs that MAGA may ignore court rulings and, if it chooses to operate within the system, it can repeatedly appeal until cases come before the supreme court, which will almost certainly bow before MAGA.
There may be strikes and civil disobedience, perhaps even on a grand scale. Heroes may go to prison, but that too will almost certainly prove insufficient to derail the enemies of democracy. Is there a possibility of violent resistance? Possibly, but it would hardly be of a scale to overturn MAGA. The more likely outcome would be chaos and instability, which of course could have economic consequences affecting the sustainability of the anti-democracy project.
The only armed forces capable of taking down MAGA are the forces of the state. MAGA appears aware of the danger here and is planning to purge the military and other security institutions. The oath of the US military contains the words: ‘[I] solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.’ That’s fairly straightforward, but the oath also contains the words ‘I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me …’ There is wiggle room there if the army chooses to ignore the thrust of its oath.
There may be a more prosaic way, already suggested, in which Trump and Maga fall. The US economy is a very complex entity. It is also a fragile entity linked to the world’s equally fragile capitalist economies. Enforceable contracts, stability and trust are crucial. These are hardly compatible with Trump’s approach, which has recently approved bribery as an instrument of US capital. It is no accident that the price of gold is rising rapidly and leaving crypto behind. Pension funds and others are worried. The frontier spirit, a president keen to monetise his power and who believes the US and the world can be instantly redesigned, a series of inexperienced mavericks in charge along with a spectrum of civilian resistance and substantial pushback from former allies might well trigger an economic and stock market crash. If this happens, Trump will surely crash and burn.
That happy day might see democracy and respect for diversity restored, but it is unlikely we would see a return to the geo-political pieties of the post-WWII period – which might not be a bad thing as they are very much past their expiry date.
19/2/2025
Maurice Earls is joint editor of the Dublin Review of Books
Postscript February 25th
Readers will be aware of certain events since this article was published on February 19th.
In the US the attack on the constitution has continued and Trump’s purge of the military is underway. There is also evidence of increasing energy in the anti-MAGA democratic pushback.
In Europe there have been positive developments. Following Sunday’s election, the next German chancellor is almost certain to be Friedrich Merz. Merz has hit the street running and responded forcefully to the effective withdrawal of the US security guarantee and general US hostility towards Europe. In the face of new political realities, he has abandoned his former ardent Atlanticism and, it seems, his thus-far-but-no-further approach to EU integration. A central role for Germany in EU leadership and defence is now likely as military and debt taboos appear likely to dissipate. These developments echo the growing awareness across the continent, including in the UK, that a strong Europe is a prerequisite for a peaceful Europe. It is also heartening that Merz has stood firm on the moral lessons of the twentieth century and consistently rejected a role in government for the expanded AfD.
In Ireland the news is also good. Government priorities have decidedly pivoted to the east. Taoiseach Micheál Martin, a former history teacher, has begun to lead from the front. He has spoken positively of Irish peacekeepers serving in Ukraine. There is also an acute awareness that currently there is no peace in Ukraine to preserve. Addressing leaders from across Europe and Canada at the invasion anniversary conference of solidarity in Kyiv, Martin criticised Russia and said ‘We in Ireland stand with you [Ukraine] and we need to say more, we need to spend more and we need to do more’. The Russian ambassador in Dublin has accused the Irish government of ‘spreading anti- Russian propaganda’.
Correction Belgium 24/02/25: N-VA Chairman and Mayor of Antwerp, Bart De Wever, became the prime minister of Belgium in February. Politically the N-VA is ‘Thatcherite’ and Flemish nationalist rather than far right. The Flemish far-right party is Vlaams Belang. It is not in office. There is no Francophone far-right party with representation in the Belgian parliament.Â
