Maurice Earls writes: The Trump presidency is in the process of taking full political control in the United States. This is something which the framers of the American constitution very much wished to avoid. Institutional checks were written in. The houses of congress and the laws of the Republic have long operated as formidable constitutional checks on presidential power. There have been many times when they were needed and used. Today is different. Congress has been self-neutered by its own Republican members. Trump is not bothering to seek congress’s approval and congress is not bothering to object. The courts are under daily attack. Trump himself has joined in, as have JD Vance and others. Elon Musk has declared the need for ‘an immediate wave of judicial impeachments’. The unavoidable conclusion is that Trump is in the process of overturning the US constitution. An unprecedented politics is now under construction in the United States with radical domestic and international ambitions.
Europe’s relationship with the United States has been one of subordination for some eighty years. Many in Europe found the supine a perfectly acceptable position, compensating with a cultural sneer. However, as the thunder of American hooves and talk of economic war is heard, alarm is growing. The fear of being squelched militarily by the Russians and economically by the Americans has concentrated minds. Many are now beginning to stand up, joining Emanuel Macron and some others who have long been on their feet. Happily, it seems there is little appetite in the EU for rolling over in an easterly or westerly direction. The absence of a proper army is of course something of a drawback, as is the legacy of strategic laziness, but perhaps Trump is not the only one who can move quickly.
The Irish, whose economy is hugely dependent on the US, are feeling particularly jittery. In response they have become nervously pro-active in a knee-jerk sort of way. Plans are being urgently generated to leverage our cultural, business and diplomatic assets with the Prince of Orange. Eight ministers will be in America for St Patrick’s Day.
There is a profound weakness in this proposed diplomatic offensive, which reflects more Panglossian optimism than political reality. Simon Harris has declared that there is time to negotiate with the US before tariffs come into force. What is he thinking? It is as if the state has not bothered to study MAGA. MAGA intends to bring Europe dramatically to heel. The only thing that will conceivably incline Trump to reverse is if his actions cause serious economic damage within the US. What is about to descend on the Irish economy – albeit slowly – has been a long time coming but we have not used the time available to overhaul our strategic thinking.
Even if our arguments, which are plausible enough when abstracted from political reality (Ryanair does buy an awful lot from Boeing), are well received, and that is a big if, there is no possibility our actions could save the EU from Trump’s malign attention. (Irish visitors to the US in March will certainly not be EU plenipotentiaries.) Putting Europe down is part of a larger Trump geo-political objective. Since Ireland will (one assumes) not be choosing Boston over Brussels anytime soon, our trade relations with the US cannot be separated out from those of the EU. Our interests lie with the European resistance and response to MAGA.
Instinctively, Trump will probably wish to be just as hostile to Ireland as to the EU in general, perhaps even more so. The culture of positivity towards Ireland and the never-ending help, without charge, to the Irish in sorting out their local difficulties is a thing of the past. That was part of the Democratic-Party-dominated old-style US political culture which MAGA despises and whose day is done. There are many in the US who would delight in sending a few good kicks in our direction, and that is without taking our principled stand on Gaza into account.
As it is, Trump has said he plans to target pharmaceutical imports for special attention declaring: ‘What it’s going to do is bring pharmaceuticals back to this country: much more important than the money.’ There is no prospect of talking MAGA down. If we are permitted to present the shamrock bowl in March, it may well be met with a humiliating and undiplomatic dressing down.
Of course we should send some emissaries to the US to keep contacts and communication alive, but our real efforts should be on the eastern front. We need to demonstrate solidarity and eager support for the emerging new European politics rather than sending economic messages which may be read in Europe, to our disadvantage, as muted Irexit noises. Europe is the place we will be needing friends. It is important we hold on to those we have. (See postscript for recent positive Irish developments)
On the home front we need to coordinate all relevant agencies of state, possibly under the successful Enterprise Ireland, to encourage existing businesses which are exporting goods and services to the EU. We need to put our resources into discovering and developing new products and services which will sell to the 450m population of the Union.
In the longer term things could work out well for Europe. The America-first shift in the US may see large swathes of the continent escape the condition of cultural and military dependence, finally becoming an autonomous political entity in the world and thus realising an EU version of the Robert Emmet dream. Europe has the money and economic clout to do this, but it is not clear that its ensemble of nation states has the capacity to slip the anchors of local interest and act coherently in the common European interest. It will be a good sign if the Irish cow lobby and other similar lobbies across Europe are induced to step aside.
There is, of course, another problem. Europe is falling apart. The far-right Herbert Kickl, memorably described as a wolf in wolf’s clothing, looked until a week or so ago a good bet to become Austrian chancellor. Those talks have now broken down but Kickl leads the country’s largest party. The far right is running the show in Italy and Belgium, is the largest party and with a strong influence in government in the Netherlands, and is supporting right wing government in Sweden and enjoying an apparent veto power over the French government. Then we have Hungary and Slovakia inside the gates and in a position to challenge EU resistance to Trump or Putin (Meloni in Italy, significantly, does not seem to share the widespread far-right softness on Putin). And there are more from the far right on the way up, all lukewarm on, if not hostile to, federal Europe.
One possibility is that, as the European public registers the existential dangers facing the Union, the far right will find it must align with Europe’s fundamental geopolitical interests or lose support. Significantly, none of them is talking any longer of leaving the EU. Brexit pulled them into line and this can happen again.
As if the far right and an authoritarian United States are not enough, the EU has a large economic problem: low to no growth. Without growth the Union cannot hope to survive as a coherent polity and – at least from this writer’s point of view – as a civilisational and moral beacon, built on the best of the Enlightenment and Romantic heritages. Mario Draghi has shown the way to economic growth in his competitiveness report published in September. Now, with its just published Competitiveness Compass, the EU commission has effectively adopted Draghi’s report. This involves radical action on many fronts including accelerating trade across EU states. It remains to be seen if Ireland will have sufficient bandwidth to vigorously support this document as it should, given the resources it is directing towards the US.
The European security crisis is likely to enhance EU political and economic integration. The desire for speedy action is spreading beyond the usual suspects. The Belgian minister of defence, Theo Francken has said Europe’s defence industry should consolidate in a small number of large players able to meet Europe’s defence needs, adding: ‘We need someone who says, okay guys, we’re in deep sh*t… we need to take really big steps ahead.’ If it happens in defence, it will happen elsewhere and while there is much in this which would be positive for Europe, the danger for a country like Ireland is marginalisation. The way to avoid that is to focus on Europe and not to facilitate the opinion that we are owed nothing.
Meanwhile, back in the USA, democratic and government norms are in the process of being dismantled. Great chunks of the US Enlightenment heritage are being discarded as power is concentrated at the centre, with all wings of government: administration, finance, law and security progressively subordinated to presidential control.
There are numerous reports in the US media of Trump’s unconstitutional actions. He has begun, without legal authority, to dismantle the nonpartisan civil service. Career public servants are being fired because they are not trusted ‘to assist in faithfully implementing the President’s agenda’. He has illegally by-passed congress to freeze foreign aid. Federal grants and loans have been illegally frozen. One academic commented: ‘It’s hard to think of anything more destructive of our constitutional order than a claim that a president can either spend funds that have not been appropriated or refuse to spend funds that have.’
Trump’s actions so far are consistent with the policies and recommendations of the far-right Project 2025, some of whose prominent figures have been appointed to government office. Their objective is to have virtually all power centralised under the president and to remove the traditional checks on presidential power. The political philosophy of 2025 has been described as Christian Nationalism and it aspires, as soon as is feasible, to impose an ultra-conservative social vision throughout society. Project 2025 has anti-democracy at its core. In order to advance its priorities, it favours numerous restrictions on democratic participation and has no interest in winning consent for its vision. It’s about top-down cultural and political engineering. There is no account offered of what the fate will be of the diverse populations within the US who do not identify with this narrow vision. Major pushback against this simplistic programme seems probable.
MAGA didn’t come from nowhere. Despite the many decades of political mythology which posited a nation united in its commitment to democracy – much promulgated by the Democratic Party – actual American devotion to democracy was always far from universal. The now politicised Evangelical population, whose presence long pre-dates the Enlightenment, is committed to the absolute, literal truth of the Bible. It is hardly surprising that this population does not see democracy as remotely comparable in value. The large ‘conservative’ population which believes in a strong elite-led state, and the large racist population, have no reason to attach much in the way of moral or political value to democratic processes. And, it seems, a significant segment of the poor and working poor are, at best, indifferent to the practice and value of elections. (This latter group will almost certainly be the first to experience acute buyer’s remorse.) Mainstream Republican voters have, without so much as a backward glance, also joined the MAGA wave. The neo-liberal free market enthusiasts have joined up too, having concluded that the Christian Nationalist vision offers capital the potential for greater freedom than social libertarianism. Those who adhere to the absolutes of the latter philosophy have lost out. They are effectively MAGA road kill. Elon Musk is a capitalist who has joined the Christian Nationalists. He now describes himself as a cultural Christian. If we add to all this the conspiratorial work of the well-funded intellectual apparatchiks of the anti-democracy movement who have been beavering and plotting for decades, both the election result and subsequent wholesale attack on the constitution become more comprehensible. The hidden America with its new friends is now in charge. Free and fair elections in 2028 is not their priority.
In his inaugural address Trump declared ‘The spirit of the frontier is written into our hearts.’ This is the new touchstone. The frontier spirit, which was celebrated on February 9th with a presidential executive order enhancing the already extensive right to bear arms, has clearly little to do with democracy or of course inclusivity. (If in doubt one could ask the Navajo native Americans recently questioned as suspected illegal immigrants.) In MAGAland the mythology of the genocidal frontier is to replace the post WWII political mythology of the US love for democracy.
It is the exercise of raw power that is admired in Magaland. The new macho noise in business and society is a spinoff from this. In this new world, Adolf Hitler, once the epitome of evil, is now widely admired for getting stuff done. Elon Musk felt safe giving the Nazi salute from the podium during the Trump inauguration. The next time he gives the straight arm salute, he will perhaps be mounted and wearing a cowboy hat.
Post-WWII America was unchallengeable outside the communist world, and that could be successfully contained. The US could and did have its way. It was called ‘the American Century’ for good reason. Russia as a competing economic model was dismissed as ‘Upper Volta with rockets’. Nobody could match the productive power and energy of the US. But nothing lasts forever. Russia could be successfully contained and deterred by the fabulously wealthy and powerful US in the post-WWII period. That won’t work with China, which is building a military command centre buried deep in the earth and vastly bigger than the Pentagon. The reality is that China has credible ambitions to surpass the US economically and militarily. It is hardly surprising that this has concentrated minds. Trump’s intelligentsia appear to believe that a culturally united, geographically focused, centralised state which focuses its power and wealth on strong government will survive and thrive peacefully alongside China and Russia, that it is no longer necessary or wise for the US to spread itself thinly around the globe in the ruinously expensive exercise of soft and not-so-soft power. Instead America will play a ruthless multi-polar game. That is ultimately what MAGA geopolitics is about, power-sharing with China from a position of strength. Trump has already suggested that the US, China and Russia agree to massively cut their military budgets. Marco Rubio has said that an end to the Ukrainian conflict could see ‘incredible opportunities’ to partner with the Russians geopolitically.
MAGA is not about fortress America. It is about the agreed division of the globe into zones of control, and the US wants a good chunk. Trump intends the US to wring concessions from subject peoples within its sphere of entitlement. He wants vassal states to contribute monies to the US rather than the other way around. A people’s place on the spectrum of subordination depends entirely on their negotiating strength. The Palestinians have none. Asked on what basis he could propose the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, Trump replied ‘US authority’. A substantial part of the Middle East is seen as being within the American zone. By telling the Palestinians that he plans to develop their land as summer homes for the rich, he is making his philosophy of total political dominance clear in the vilest way imaginable.
Trump’s numerous threats against erstwhile allies, particularly the EU, the richest and most powerful one, should be read in this context. He has asserted his right to determine the outcome of disputes on Europe’s borders. Europe has insultingly been excluded from the negotiation with Putin. He has sent JD Vance to Europe to denounce the Union’s democratically elected leaders. This is what can happen when you fail, as the EU has done, to develop adequate autonomous defences.
While Trump is delighted to threaten Europe with Russia and generally put on the frighteners, it would be illogical for him to permit Russia to seize EU territory. Europe is too rich a dish, and crucial in the economic balance against China. But history is not always logical. European intelligence services say Putin is readying his armies to invade a European NATO country. Danish intelligence claims he will be ready in six months.
Unquestionably, something very resolute is required from Europe. Emergency rearmament to a high level has the capacity to deter Russia and ultimately chasten the US. The Germans, in particular, will have to step up and step up quickly. (See postscript for post-election positive developments in Germany) If the Irish think a few gestures will do they are mistaken. If they are not seen to play their part they will be regarded as cowards, which will have long-term negative consequences. In Munich Micheál Martin has, quite unnecessarily, poured cold water on the idea of an autonomous European military force.(See postscript for recent positive Irish developments) As the US – the major component of NATO – appears to be abandoning Europe, the idea is gaining traction. France, of course, is for it and Poland is open to the idea. Others will probably follow. National armies in Europe which fold into NATO could just as easily fold into a European army. It is understandable that some European countries in NATO might be cautious about such a proposal but for a non-NATO country with a minuscule army, such as Ireland, to oppose the idea prompts the question, how does it envisage Europe and the EU defending itself?
Returning to MAGA, assuming Trump’s recklessness does not lead to numerous wars, will the MAGA geo-political vision work? Quite possibly, in part at any rate. If it is seen to deliver the prospect of long-term peace with China and Russia, it is hard to imagine a voluntary return to the status quo ante. However, Trump’s ambition to wholly control and exploit his ‘allies’ and those zones of the globe which he feels fall to the US may be a different matter. Some parts of the world he wishes to treat as vassals are too rich and have too many options for his simplistic feudal-like vision. Europe will probably be the area which will determine MAGA’s failure in this regard.
Geographically ‘far-flung’ places like Japan, with a lot to lose, may feel, that for now they have little option but to bend the knee and pay up. Others will respond economically, and that response may do great damage to MAGAland, which underestimates the economic strength and options of many of its erstwhile allies.
The other question is whether there will be substantial US resistance to Trump’s attacks on the constitution and the imposition of Christian Nationalist social values which, it may be assumed, will follow in due course. Thus far the Democrats are sticking with what is left of the constitution and going to the courts on a near daily basis in response to Trump’s actions. Unfortunately, this is likely to prove insufficient. There are already signs that MAGA may ignore court rulings and, if it chooses to operate within the system, it can repeatedly appeal until cases come before the supreme court, which will almost certainly bow before MAGA.
There may be strikes and civil disobedience, perhaps even on a grand scale. Heroes may go to prison, but that too will almost certainly prove insufficient to derail the enemies of democracy. Is there a possibility of violent resistance? Possibly, but it would hardly be of a scale to overturn MAGA. The more likely outcome would be chaos and instability, which of course could have economic consequences affecting the sustainability of the anti-democracy project.
The only armed forces capable of taking down MAGA are the forces of the state. MAGA appears aware of the danger here and is planning to purge the military and other security institutions. The oath of the US military contains the words: ‘[I] solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.’ That’s fairly straightforward, but the oath also contains the words ‘I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me …’ There is wiggle room there if the army chooses to ignore the thrust of its oath.
There may be a more prosaic way, already suggested, in which Trump and Maga fall. The US economy is a very complex entity. It is also a fragile entity linked to the world’s equally fragile capitalist economies. Enforceable contracts, stability and trust are crucial. These are hardly compatible with Trump’s approach, which has recently approved bribery as an instrument of US capital. It is no accident that the price of gold is rising rapidly and leaving crypto behind. Pension funds and others are worried. The frontier spirit, a president keen to monetise his power and who believes the US and the world can be instantly redesigned, a series of inexperienced mavericks in charge along with a spectrum of civilian resistance and substantial pushback from former allies might well trigger an economic and stock market crash. If this happens, Trump will surely crash and burn.
That happy day might see democracy and respect for diversity restored, but it is unlikely we would see a return to the geo-political pieties of the post-WWII period – which might not be a bad thing as they are very much past their expiry date.
19/2/2025
Maurice Earls is joint editor of the Dublin Review of Books
Postscript February 25th
Readers will be aware of certain events since this article was published on February 19th.
In the US the attack on the constitution has continued and Trump’s purge of the military is underway. There is also evidence of increasing energy in the anti-MAGA democratic pushback.
In Europe there have been positive developments. Following Sunday’s election, the next German chancellor is almost certain to be Friedrich Merz. Merz has hit the street running and responded forcefully to the effective withdrawal of the US security guarantee and general US hostility towards Europe. In the face of new political realities, he has abandoned his former ardent Atlanticism and, it seems, his thus-far-but-no-further approach to EU integration. A central role for Germany in EU leadership and defence is now likely as military and debt taboos appear likely to dissipate. These developments echo the growing awareness across the continent, including in the UK, that a strong Europe is a prerequisite for a peaceful Europe. It is also heartening that Merz has stood firm on the moral lessons of the twentieth century and consistently rejected a role in government for the expanded AfD.
In Ireland the news is also good. Government priorities have decidedly pivoted to the east. Taoiseach Micheál Martin, a former history teacher, has begun to lead from the front. He has spoken positively of Irish peacekeepers serving in Ukraine. There is also an acute awareness that currently there is no peace in Ukraine to preserve. Addressing leaders from across Europe and Canada at the invasion anniversary conference of solidarity in Kyiv, Martin criticised Russia and said ‘We in Ireland stand with you [Ukraine] and we need to say more, we need to spend more and we need to do more’. The Russian ambassador in Dublin has accused the Irish government of ‘spreading anti- Russian propaganda’.
Correction Belgium 24/02/25: N-VA Chairman and Mayor of Antwerp, Bart De Wever, became the prime minister of Belgium in February. Politically the N-VA is ‘Thatcherite’ and Flemish nationalist rather than far right. The Flemish far-right party is Vlaams Belang. It is not in office. There is no Francophone far-right party with representation in the Belgian parliament.
Slow March to Peace
Michael Lillis writes: During March 1993 I met with Gerry Adams for two full days and one half-day in Dublin and briefly afterwards at a house in West Belfast. I had left the Irish public service in 1990, where I had served as diplomatic adviser to the taoiseach in 1982 and a negotiator of the Anglo-Irish Agreement between 1983 and ’85 and was therefore, as a private citizen, no longer subject to any official political direction. My reason for meeting Gerry Adams was not to negotiate with him or to persuade him of anything. It was simply to respond to a request to do so from my friend the brilliant journalist and activist Mary Holland. Mary was the only journalist whom I had briefed confidentially throughout the negotiation of the Anglo-Irish Agreement between 1983 and 1985, mainly because she had uniquely well-informed sources at the heart, not alone of republican and loyalist politics (including their paramilitary leaders), but the SDLP leadership (including crucially John Hume) and several key ministers and officials (including my former opposite number in the Anglo-Irish negotiations, David Goodall) at the heart of Mrs Thatcher’s cabinet and her cabinet office. It was valuable to have a sense of Mary’s ‘read’, as an exceptionally well-connected ‘outsider’ to these constituencies as the rumours about our negotiations continued to percolate. She had not once betrayed, even indirectly, the confidentiality of her conversations with me, even though the urge to do so for a journalist who was widely seen as a reliable and remarkably well-informed expert on Dublin, London and ‘paramilitary’ politics (from the leadership of the Provisional IRA across to the UDA and the UVF) must have been overwhelming. She strongly believed in the hope for peace that lay in the secret negotiations between London and Dublin which led to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985 and she would not have written or done anything that could possibly undermine them.
In counterpart she had been willing to give me her advice and even to share highly relevant information that she had gleaned from her many sources. I give one example: in early 1985 we were fairly confident that, subject to the eventual views of the lord chancellor, Baron Hailsham, Mrs Thatcher was seriously ‘open’ to the taoiseach’s advocacy for ‘mixed courts’ between North and South as part of an eventual package. Mary told me that she had in recent days attended the obsequies for a prominent senior Tory on an exceptionally cold morning in London and was walking away from the church when a Rolls Royce had drawn up at the footpath beside her and a voice from the back seat had urged her to ‘hop in’. It was Lord Hailsham himself, enveloped in rugs and petting his Pekingese. He started to talk about the judges in the Northern Ireland courts. ‘Those men do our dirty work for us, Mary,’ he insisted. Coming from the very heart of the British judicial system, this little cameo for me sounded the death-knell for one of Garret FitzGerald’s cherished projects, as in due course the British side confirmed to us. As an aside, I might add that, despite the many efforts of subsequent years, including the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, this particular initiative never again, as far as I know, surfaced in discussions between London and Dublin.
In early March 1993 Mary had urged me to meet with Adams to answer his questions about the British method of diplomatic negotiation. She believed that Adams in particular was moving towards meeting with the British and would benefit, and possibly even be encouraged, by talking to someone who had had some experience of dealing with them at a significant level. I had no illusions either about Gerry Adams’s position as a coldly determined leader of the Provisional IRA or indeed on the other hand about the darker skills of British diplomacy, much less about my own powers as a persuader who could move Gerry Adams away from violence and onto the path to reconciliation and peace. At the same time I felt that if I could play a modest role as a respondent to questions about my own experience – and not as an advocate for any particular political approach by Gerry Adams – it might conceivably help slightly to begin to dilute the permafrost that for decades had frozen the leader of the Provisional IRA out of any level whatever of what I might call ordinary political dialogue with his adversaries. Moreover I was persuaded that, as an entirely independent non-political individual, a willingness to engage with him only on the basis of trying to answer his questions about British diplomatic method could, at worst, do no harm.
I should add that, again as a private individual, I told the former taoiseach Garret FitzGerald that I was inclined to respond to Mary Holland’s invitation on these lines. He was not happy but he did not formally try to forbid my doing so. Had he done so I think that I would have desisted.
And so I met with Gerry Adams on three successive days at Mary’s house in Ranelagh, formerly the home of Thomas MacDonagh, the poet and leader of the 1916 Rising executed with the other leaders by the British. Although on the first day of our exchanges, neither Gerry Adams nor I asked Mary to withdraw, she did so, leaving Gerry Adams and me alone with each other. During the first quarter of an hour we spoke in Irish. His Irish was quite fluent. Mine was perhaps even more so. The only difficulty we confronted was that I spoke the dialect of West Cork, whereas his dialect was a Belfast version of the Donegal Gaeltacht. Communication was possible but not easy, so we reverted to English.
I had told Mary that I would have to make a statement of my own abhorrence of the Provisional IRA’s campaign of violence at the outset and I asked her kindly to ensure that Gerry Adams understood that this was a condition of my involvement in the exchanges with him.
I spoke briefly though in strong terms of my outright rejection of the Provisional IRA’s twenty-year campaign of violence, of its complete lack of legitimacy or justification, how it had destroyed the lives and hopes of an entire generation and of the shame and revulsion that it caused me as an Irish person. Gerry Adams listened calmly without interruption or response.
I then moved on to the issue of the modalities and strategies of British negotiation and tried to respond to a series of questions he posed to me. It was clear that he had given serious thought to these issues and had previously read a good deal about them. It was clear, for example, that he had seriously considered the compelling book on negotiation ‘Getting to Yes’ by Roger Fisher and William Ury, or had been in discussion with someone who was familiar with its analysis. I tried to keep my answers at the level of theoretical abstraction. My main point was to emphasise a point developed by Clausewitz on the priority of winning the result above winning the argument as a strategic and tactical objective in negotiation.
After a few hours, however, his questions turned to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, in the negotiation of which I had been involved for a number of years. I was comfortable to discuss the background to the negotiation of this treaty, mainly because I knew that Hume had repeatedly used the terms of this Agreement to argue that the Agreement, particularly in Article 2 (C) which provided for British active support for Irish unity in the event that a majority in Northern Ireland desired such a settlement, removed even from a republican viewpoint any justification for continuing their campaign of violence and once and for all ended the hitherto impermeable Unionist veto. I did not seek to preach at him in these terms but continued to cite the simple text itself, how it had been agreed and its profound historic significance. I also cited the provisions of the Agreement on the ground-breaking role of the Irish government for the first time in Northern Ireland and strong and detailed support for power-sharing as evidence that it was possible to work for progress through negotiation with a British government , even one led by Mrs Thatcher. This was the one point in these lengthy exchanges, the mention by name of Margaret Thatcher, where Gerry Adams showed an emotional response, which was hardly surprising.
The discussion continued throughout a second day and only concluded at lunchtime on the third. By then it was clear to me that he was determined to find a way to negotiate with the British and even the Irish government. He did not express this desire in precisely those terms but his intense curiosity and controlled but unmistakeable enthusiasm throughout left me in no doubt that he hoped to move to a negotiating strategy which obviously would not be compatible with continuing the IRA’s campaign of violence. I should add that we did not discuss this aspect either as it was outside the question-and-answer framework which had been the agreed basis of our exchanges.
By this time our relationship had become less formal and I would say more friendly. In no sense did he try to persuade me of the justification for the IRA’s campaign of violence, any more than I had tried to persuade him to abandon that campaign. But, without returning to my opening statement, we each knew exactly where the other stood.
At this time I was trying quite separately in my new job to advance several aircraft leasing campaigns on behalf of GE Capital in Latin America, one in Colombia and the other in Paraguay. I remember driving to Belfast in Mary’s car and engaging in frantic mobile phone calls with a Colonel Maldonado of the Paraguayan air force on the terms to conclude the lease of an elderly DC10-30 aircraft which Maldonado and I finally concluded just when Mary and I arrived at Gerry Adams’ a ‘safe house’ in West Belfast. As it happened it was not possible to continue my dialogue with Adams that day because of local security concerns, which were exacerbated by a series of loyalist murders in the area. I saw enough to confirm that Gerry Adams was a genuinely popular figure in that neighbourhood.
I returned to Asunción, the capital of Paraguay, to sign that deal with the Paraguayan national airline LAPSA. While there I had a phone call from John Hume who said he needed to see me as a matter of great urgency. We arranged to meet in Terminal 1 at Heathrow early in the morning two days later. I flew from Asunción to São Paulo in Brazil and onwards to arrive in Heathrow early as arranged.
John was, as always, friendly, though clearly somewhat agitated. He told me that he was involved in a crucial negotiation with Gerry Adams which he believed might lead to a ceasefire by the Provisional IRA. He had learned somehow that I was involved in a discussion with Adams and was very concerned that this could be or could become a source of confusion and could even disrupt the prospects for the success of his own efforts. I was generally aware that John Hume had been in dialogue with Gerry Adams for some time, but did not have any inkling that those discussions were close to a breakthrough or to an IRA ceasefire. I gave him a brief but succinct account of my own exchanges with Adams, emphasising that they were simply an exercise in responding to his questions about my own earlier dealings with the British in the run-up to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985. John gave me an account of the key issues he was seeking to resolve with Adams, notably on the definition of Irish ‘self-determination’, which later became central to the Downing Street Declaration and he showed me some texts he was working on. I assured him that this matter was never touched on in my own question-and-answer sessions with Gerry Adams, who perfectly understood that I represented no one except myself. He asked me to desist from my conversations with Gerry Adams. Without the slightest hesitation I said I would do so immediately, but that I would, unless he objected, send a message to Gerry Adams through Mary Holland saying that I was terminating our exchanges in order to avoid any possibility of confusion. He agreed to this and we parted on the best of terms.
I have kept a few of my notes for the message in Irish that I sent to Adams through Mary Holland when I arrived in Dublin later that very day. I did not mention the name of John Hume or the matter of ‘self-determination’ in my message (this in case my letter were intercepted) but I did say that I understood that important conversations were taking place involving priests and other religious and that progress was being made. I said that I had been asked to desist from my conversations with him, Gerry Adams, so as to avoid any confusion arising and I had agreed to that request. I added that I urged him to make every possible effort to ensure success in those other discussions. I finished by saying that, in spite of the enormous differences between us, I had concluded that he was a serious and able person and that perhaps in the future it might be possible for us to meet again.
Through Mary Holland I received a reply in Gerry Adams’s handwriting dated Belfast, 2 April 1993. I have kept the original. The first paragraph was in Irish and the remainder in English:
Dear Michael
I have received your letter and I am grateful to you for it. At the same time I regret your message because I think our discussion was very useful. One matter does not interfere with the other. Therefore I would like to continue.
Michael, whatever else you may have been told our discussions can only assist efforts to find a settlement, or a process which aims to do so. Nothing is jeopardized by our discussions. On the contrary they are beneficial, not least because some of my associates, who are privy to what is being attempted, are pleased that we have met. For our discussions to end, at the behest of someone else, whose reasons for doing so are unclear, would not be well received. It will not cause great impact but you know how important goodwill is and how nuances and little things can affect perceptions.
There you are!! I must say that our discussions have been of benefit to me, personally and politically. No possible harm can come from such exchanges only good. Excuse this scribble. My writing is almost as bad as yours.
Slán
Gerry
PS: The castle above is not my Áras. (Note: referring to a design on his notepaper). This is the only paper at hand!’
That was the last communication I had with Gerry Adams.
Michael Lillis was diplomatic adviser to the taoiseach, Garret FitzGerald, in 1981 and one of the negotiators of the Anglo-Irish Agreement between 1983 and 1985. He was the first Irish joint secretary at the Anglo-Irish Secretariat in the ‘Bunker’ at Maryfield, Belfast from 1985 to ’87. Subsequently he was involved in aircraft leasing in Latin America and is co-author with Ronan Fanning of Scandal and Courage: the Lives of Eliza Lynch (1992).
8/12/2024