I am so at home in Dublin, more than any other city, that I feel it has always been familiar to me. It took me years to see through its soft charm to its bitter prickly kernel - which I quite like too.

Crash, baby, crash!

Maurice Earls writes: The Trump presidency is in the process of taking full political control in the United States. This is something which the framers of the American constitution very much wished to avoid. Institutional checks were written in. The houses of congress and the laws of the Republic have long operated as formidable constitutional checks on presidential power. There have been many times when they were needed and used. Today is different. Congress has been self-neutered by its own Republican members. Trump is not bothering to seek congress’s approval and congress is not bothering to object. The courts are under daily attack. Trump himself has joined in, as have JD Vance and others. Elon Musk has declared the need for ‘an immediate wave of judicial impeachments’. The unavoidable conclusion is that Trump is in the process of overturning the US constitution. An unprecedented politics is now under construction in the United States with radical domestic and international ambitions.

Europe’s relationship with the United States has been one of subordination for some eighty years. Many in Europe found the supine a perfectly acceptable position, compensating with a cultural sneer. However, as the thunder of American hooves and talk of economic war is heard, alarm is growing. The fear of being squelched militarily by the Russians and economically by the Americans has concentrated minds. Many are now beginning to stand up, joining Emanuel Macron and some others who have long been on their feet. Happily, it seems there is little appetite in the EU for rolling over in an easterly or westerly direction. The absence of a proper army is of course something of a drawback, as is the legacy of strategic laziness, but perhaps Trump is not the only one who can move quickly.

The Irish, whose economy is hugely dependent on the US, are feeling particularly jittery. In response they have become nervously pro-active in a knee-jerk sort of way. Plans are being urgently generated to leverage our cultural, business and diplomatic assets with the Prince of Orange. Eight ministers will be in America for St Patrick’s Day.

There is a profound weakness in this proposed diplomatic offensive, which reflects more Panglossian optimism than political reality. Simon Harris has declared that there is time to negotiate with the US before tariffs come into force. What is he thinking? It is as if the state has not bothered to study MAGA. MAGA intends to bring Europe dramatically to heel. The only thing that will conceivably incline Trump to reverse is if his actions cause serious economic damage within the US. What is about to descend on the Irish economy – albeit slowly – has been a long time coming but we have not used the time available to overhaul our strategic thinking.

Even if our arguments, which are plausible enough when abstracted from political reality (Ryanair does buy an awful lot from Boeing), are well received, and that is a big if, there is no possibility our actions could save the EU from Trump’s malign attention. (Irish visitors to the US in March will certainly not be EU plenipotentiaries.) Putting Europe down is part of a larger Trump geo-political objective. Since Ireland will (one assumes) not be choosing Boston over Brussels anytime soon, our trade relations with the US cannot be separated out from those of the EU. Our interests lie with the European resistance and response to MAGA.

Instinctively, Trump will probably wish to be just as hostile to Ireland as to the EU in general, perhaps even more so. The culture of positivity towards Ireland and the never-ending help, without charge, to the Irish in sorting out their local difficulties is a thing of the past. That was part of the Democratic-Party-dominated old-style US political culture which MAGA despises and whose day is done. There are many in the US who would delight in sending a few good kicks in our direction, and that is without taking our principled stand on Gaza into account.

As it is, Trump has said he plans to target pharmaceutical imports for special attention declaring: ‘What it’s going to do is bring pharmaceuticals back to this country: much more important than the money.’ There is no prospect of talking MAGA down. If we are permitted to present the shamrock bowl in March, it may well be met with a humiliating and undiplomatic dressing down.

Of course we should send some emissaries to the US to keep contacts and communication alive, but our real efforts should be on the eastern front. We need to demonstrate solidarity and eager support for the emerging new European politics rather than sending economic messages which may be read in Europe, to our disadvantage, as muted Irexit noises. Europe is the place we will be needing friends. It is important we hold on to those we have. (See postscript for recent positive Irish developments)

On the home front we need to coordinate all relevant agencies of state, possibly under the successful Enterprise Ireland, to encourage existing businesses which are exporting goods and services to the EU. We need to put our resources into discovering and developing new products and services which will sell to the 450m population of the Union.

In the longer term things could work out well for Europe. The America-first shift in the US may see large swathes of the continent escape the condition of cultural and military dependence, finally becoming an autonomous political entity in the world and thus realising an EU version of the Robert Emmet dream. Europe has the money and economic clout to do this, but it is not clear that its ensemble of nation states has the capacity to slip the anchors of local interest and act coherently in the common European interest. It will be a good sign if the Irish cow lobby and other similar lobbies across Europe are induced to step aside.

There is, of course, another problem. Europe is falling apart. The far-right Herbert Kickl, memorably described as a wolf in wolf’s clothing, looked until a week or so ago a good bet to become Austrian chancellor. Those talks have now broken down but Kickl leads the country’s largest party. The far right is running the show in Italy and Belgium, is the largest party and with a strong influence in government in the Netherlands, and is supporting right wing government in Sweden and enjoying an apparent veto power over the French government. Then we have Hungary and Slovakia inside the gates and in a position to challenge EU resistance to Trump or Putin (Meloni in Italy, significantly, does not seem to share the widespread far-right softness on Putin). And there are more from the far right on the way up, all lukewarm on, if not hostile to, federal Europe.

One possibility is that, as the European public registers the existential dangers facing the Union, the far right will find it must align with Europe’s fundamental geopolitical interests or lose support. Significantly, none of them is talking any longer of leaving the EU. Brexit pulled them into line and this can happen again.

As if the far right and an authoritarian United States are not enough, the EU has a large economic problem: low to no growth. Without growth the Union cannot hope to survive as a coherent polity and – at least from this writer’s point of view – as a civilisational and moral beacon, built on the best of the Enlightenment and Romantic heritages. Mario Draghi has shown the way to economic growth in his competitiveness report published in September. Now, with its just published Competitiveness Compass, the EU commission has effectively adopted Draghi’s report. This involves radical action on many fronts including accelerating trade across EU states. It remains to be seen if Ireland will have sufficient bandwidth to vigorously support this document as it should, given the resources it is directing towards the US.

The European security crisis is likely to enhance EU political and economic integration. The desire for speedy action is spreading beyond the usual suspects. The Belgian minister of defence, Theo Francken has said Europe’s defence industry should consolidate in a small number of large players able to meet Europe’s defence needs, adding: ‘We need someone who says, okay guys, we’re in deep sh*t… we need to take really big steps ahead.’ If it happens in defence, it will happen elsewhere and while there is much in this which would be positive for Europe, the danger for a country like Ireland is marginalisation. The way to avoid that is to focus on Europe and not to facilitate the opinion that we are owed nothing.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, democratic and government norms are in the process of being dismantled. Great chunks of the US Enlightenment heritage are being discarded as power is concentrated at the centre, with all wings of government: administration, finance, law and security progressively subordinated to presidential control.

There are numerous reports in the US media of Trump’s unconstitutional actions. He has begun, without legal authority, to dismantle the nonpartisan civil service. Career public servants are being fired because they are not trusted ‘to assist in faithfully implementing the President’s agenda’. He has illegally by-passed congress to freeze foreign aid. Federal grants and loans have been illegally frozen. One academic commented: ‘It’s hard to think of anything more destructive of our constitutional order than a claim that a president can either spend funds that have not been appropriated or refuse to spend funds that have.’

Trump’s actions so far are consistent with the policies and recommendations of the far-right Project 2025, some of whose prominent figures have been appointed to government office. Their objective is to have virtually all power centralised under the president and to remove the traditional checks on presidential power. The political philosophy of 2025 has been described as Christian Nationalism and it aspires, as soon as is feasible, to impose an ultra-conservative social vision throughout society. Project 2025 has anti-democracy at its core. In order to advance its priorities, it favours numerous restrictions on democratic participation and has no interest in winning consent for its vision. It’s about top-down cultural and political engineering. There is no account offered of what the fate will be of the diverse populations within the US who do not identify with this narrow vision. Major pushback against this simplistic programme seems probable.

MAGA didn’t come from nowhere. Despite the many decades of political mythology which posited a nation united in its commitment to democracy – much promulgated by the Democratic Party – actual American devotion to democracy was always far from universal. The now politicised Evangelical population, whose presence long pre-dates the Enlightenment, is committed to the absolute, literal truth of the Bible. It is hardly surprising that this population does not see democracy as remotely comparable in value. The large ‘conservative’ population which believes in a strong elite-led state, and the large racist population, have no reason to attach much in the way of moral or political value to democratic processes. And, it seems, a significant segment of the poor and working poor are, at best, indifferent to the practice and value of elections. (This latter group will almost certainly be the first to experience acute buyer’s remorse.) Mainstream Republican voters have, without so much as a backward glance, also joined the MAGA wave. The neo-liberal free market enthusiasts have joined up too, having concluded that the Christian Nationalist vision offers capital the potential for greater freedom than social libertarianism. Those who adhere to the absolutes of the latter philosophy have lost out. They are effectively MAGA road kill. Elon Musk is a capitalist who has joined the Christian Nationalists. He now describes himself as a cultural Christian. If we add to all this the conspiratorial work of the well-funded intellectual apparatchiks of the anti-democracy movement who have been beavering and plotting for decades, both the election result and subsequent wholesale attack on the constitution become more comprehensible. The hidden America with its new friends is now in charge. Free and fair elections in 2028 is not their priority.

In his inaugural address Trump declared ‘The spirit of the frontier is written into our hearts.’ This is the new touchstone. The frontier spirit, which was celebrated on February 9th with a presidential executive order enhancing the already extensive right to bear arms, has clearly little to do with democracy or of course inclusivity. (If in doubt one could ask the Navajo native Americans recently questioned as suspected illegal immigrants.) In MAGAland the mythology of the genocidal frontier is to replace the post WWII political mythology of the US love for democracy.

It is the exercise of raw power that is admired in Magaland. The new macho noise in business and society is a spinoff from this. In this new world, Adolf Hitler, once the epitome of evil, is now widely admired for getting stuff done. Elon Musk felt safe giving the Nazi salute from the podium during the Trump inauguration. The next time he gives the straight arm salute, he will perhaps be mounted and wearing a cowboy hat.

Post-WWII America was unchallengeable outside the communist world, and that could be successfully contained. The US could and did have its way. It was called ‘the American Century’ for good reason. Russia as a competing economic model was dismissed as ‘Upper Volta with rockets’. Nobody could match the productive power and energy of the US. But nothing lasts forever. Russia could be successfully contained and deterred by the fabulously wealthy and powerful US in the post-WWII period. That won’t work with China, which is building a military command centre buried deep in the earth and vastly bigger than the Pentagon. The reality is that China has credible ambitions to surpass the US economically and militarily. It is hardly surprising that this has concentrated minds. Trump’s intelligentsia appear to believe that a culturally united, geographically focused, centralised state which focuses its power and wealth on strong government will survive and thrive peacefully alongside China and Russia, that it is no longer necessary or wise for the US to spread itself thinly around the globe in the ruinously expensive exercise of soft and not-so-soft power. Instead America will play a ruthless multi-polar game. That is ultimately what MAGA geopolitics is about, power-sharing with China from a position of strength. Trump has already suggested that the US, China and Russia agree to massively cut their military budgets. Marco Rubio has said that an end to the Ukrainian conflict could see ‘incredible opportunities’ to partner with the Russians geopolitically.

MAGA is not about fortress America. It is about the agreed division of the globe into zones of control, and the US wants a good chunk. Trump intends the US to wring concessions from subject peoples within its sphere of entitlement. He wants vassal states to contribute monies to the US rather than the other way around. A people’s place on the spectrum of subordination depends entirely on their negotiating strength. The Palestinians have none. Asked on what basis he could propose the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, Trump replied ‘US authority’. A substantial part of the Middle East is seen as being within the American zone. By telling the Palestinians that he plans to develop their land as summer homes for the rich, he is making his philosophy of total political dominance clear in the vilest way imaginable.

Trump’s numerous threats against erstwhile allies, particularly the EU, the richest and most powerful one, should be read in this context. He has asserted his right to determine the outcome of disputes on Europe’s borders. Europe has insultingly been excluded from the negotiation with Putin. He has sent JD Vance to Europe to denounce the Union’s democratically elected leaders. This is what can happen when you fail, as the EU has done, to develop adequate autonomous defences.

While Trump is delighted to threaten Europe with Russia and generally put on the frighteners, it would be illogical for him to permit Russia to seize EU territory. Europe is too rich a dish, and crucial in the economic balance against China. But history is not always logical. European intelligence services say Putin is readying his armies to invade a European NATO country. Danish intelligence claims he will be ready in six months.

Unquestionably, something very resolute is required from Europe. Emergency rearmament to a high level has the capacity to deter Russia and ultimately chasten the US. The Germans, in particular, will have to step up and step up quickly. (See postscript for post-election positive developments in Germany)  If the Irish think a few gestures will do they are mistaken. If they are not seen to play their part they will be regarded as cowards, which will have long-term negative consequences. In Munich Micheál Martin has, quite unnecessarily, poured cold water on the idea of an autonomous European military force.(See postscript for recent positive Irish developments) As the US – the major component of NATO – appears to be abandoning Europe, the idea is gaining traction. France, of course, is for it and Poland is open to the idea. Others will probably follow. National armies in Europe which fold into NATO could just as easily fold into a European army. It is understandable that some European countries in NATO might be cautious about such a proposal but for a non-NATO country with a minuscule army, such as Ireland, to oppose the idea prompts the question, how does it envisage Europe and the EU defending itself?

Returning to MAGA, assuming Trump’s recklessness does not lead to numerous wars, will the MAGA geo-political vision work? Quite possibly, in part at any rate. If it is seen to deliver the prospect of long-term peace with China and Russia, it is hard to imagine a voluntary return to the status quo ante. However, Trump’s ambition to wholly control and exploit his ‘allies’ and those zones of the globe which he feels fall to the US may be a different matter. Some parts of the world he wishes to treat as vassals are too rich and have too many options for his simplistic feudal-like vision. Europe will probably be the area which will determine MAGA’s failure in this regard.

Geographically ‘far-flung’ places like Japan, with a lot to lose, may feel, that for now they have little option but to bend the knee and pay up. Others will respond economically, and that response may do great damage to MAGAland, which underestimates the economic strength and options of many of its erstwhile allies.

The other question is whether there will be substantial US resistance to Trump’s attacks on the constitution and the imposition of Christian Nationalist social values which, it may be assumed, will follow in due course. Thus far the Democrats are sticking with what is left of the constitution and going to the courts on a near daily basis in response to Trump’s actions.  Unfortunately, this is likely to prove insufficient. There are already signs that MAGA may ignore court rulings and, if it chooses to operate within the system, it can repeatedly appeal until cases come before the supreme court, which will almost certainly bow before MAGA.

There may be strikes and civil disobedience, perhaps even on a grand scale. Heroes may go to prison, but that too will almost certainly prove insufficient to derail the enemies of democracy. Is there a possibility of violent resistance? Possibly, but it would hardly be of a scale to overturn MAGA. The more likely outcome would be chaos and instability, which of course could have economic consequences affecting the sustainability of the anti-democracy project.

The only armed forces capable of taking down MAGA are the forces of the state. MAGA appears aware of the danger here and is planning to purge the military and other security institutions. The oath of the US military contains the words: ‘[I] solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.’ That’s fairly straightforward, but the oath also contains the words ‘I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me …’ There is wiggle room there if the army chooses to ignore the thrust of its oath.

There may be a more prosaic way, already suggested, in which Trump and Maga fall. The US economy is a very complex entity. It is also a fragile entity linked to the world’s equally fragile capitalist economies. Enforceable contracts, stability and trust are crucial. These are hardly compatible with Trump’s approach, which has recently approved bribery as an instrument of US capital. It is no accident that the price of gold is rising rapidly and leaving crypto behind. Pension funds and others are worried. The frontier spirit, a president keen to monetise his power and who believes the US and the world can be instantly redesigned, a series of inexperienced mavericks in charge along with a spectrum of civilian resistance and substantial pushback from former allies might well trigger an economic and stock market crash. If this happens, Trump will surely crash and burn.

That happy day might see democracy and respect for diversity restored, but it is unlikely we would see a return to the geo-political pieties of the post-WWII period – which might not be a bad thing as they are very much past their expiry date.

19/2/2025

Maurice Earls is joint editor of the Dublin Review of Books

Postscript February 25th

Readers will be aware of certain events since this article was published on February 19th.

In the US the attack on the constitution has continued and Trump’s purge of the military is underway. There is also evidence of increasing energy in the anti-MAGA democratic pushback.

In Europe there have been positive developments. Following Sunday’s election, the next German chancellor is almost certain to be Friedrich Merz. Merz has hit the street running and responded forcefully to the effective withdrawal of the US security guarantee and general US hostility towards Europe. In the face of new political realities, he has abandoned his former ardent Atlanticism and, it seems, his thus-far-but-no-further approach to EU integration. A central role for Germany in EU leadership and defence is now likely as military and debt taboos appear likely to dissipate. These developments echo the growing awareness across the continent, including in the UK, that a strong Europe is a prerequisite for a peaceful Europe. It is also heartening that Merz has stood firm on the moral lessons of the twentieth century and consistently rejected a role in government for the expanded AfD.

In Ireland the news is also good. Government priorities have decidedly pivoted to the east. Taoiseach Micheál Martin, a former history teacher, has begun to lead from the front. He has spoken positively of Irish peacekeepers serving in Ukraine. There is also an acute awareness that currently there is no peace in Ukraine to preserve. Addressing leaders from across Europe and Canada at the invasion anniversary conference of solidarity in Kyiv, Martin criticised Russia and said ‘We in Ireland stand with you [Ukraine] and we need to say more, we need to spend more and we need to do more’. The Russian ambassador in Dublin has accused the Irish government of ‘spreading anti- Russian propaganda’.

Correction Belgium 24/02/25: N-VA Chairman and Mayor of Antwerp, Bart De Wever, became the prime minister of Belgium in February. Politically the N-VA is ‘Thatcherite’ and Flemish nationalist rather than far right. The Flemish far-right party is Vlaams Belang. It is not in office. There is no Francophone far-right party with representation in the Belgian parliament. 

 

Reading the Mind of War

Gerard Smyth writes: War poet. Love poet. Nature poet. Elegist. Witness to the ‘Troubles’ and what in one poem he calls ‘the stereophonic nightmare / Of the Shankill and the Falls’. Michael Longley had a superb capacity to invent variations on his themes, and each became intrinsic to his art. The sustaining element across his range of genres is the lyric power with which he addresses them, producing poems of lucidity and freshness. The Longleyesque touch that distinguishes the best of his work is perhaps to be found in the composure of the language, the weaving together of its delicate strands.

Robert Graves, a writer admired by Longley, defined a good poem as ‘one that makes complete sense, and says all it has to say memorably and economically; and has been written for no other than poetic reasons’. It is not hard to imagine that Longley shared that conception of what a good poem should be. In the quest for his own good poem nothing but the precise word would suffice.

As Ash Keys, a selection published last year and spanning the entirety of his career reminds us, he had already achieved mastery of form with formally accomplished poems while still in the first flush of his writing life, his unique stance evident in exceptional poems such as ‘Leaving Inishmore, In Memoriam’ (a poem foreshadowing the many war poems to come later) and the title poem of his debut collection, No Continuing City, a volume brimming with the poet’s self-assurance. From early to late poems in Ash Keys, there is a pattern of continuity and unity, not just in subject choices but also the distinct cadence of his lyrical voice.

What he referred to as the ‘mincing machine’ of the Great War cast its shadow over the poet’s familial background and in turn provided the dynamic for many poems, including ones that reimagine his father’s traumatic war experiences. If Heaney’s bog poems were a device to guardedly deal with the ‘situation’ in Northern Ireland, Longley too found a form to serve a similar purpose: ‘I see my great war poems as oblique comments on the Troubles …’ he once declared, citing ‘Wounds’, a poem in which he draws an analogy between a vision of his father’s Somme ‘landscape of dead buttocks’ and the commonplace domestic setting in which a murdered bus conductor has

… collapsed beside his carpet slippers,
Without a murmur, shot through the head
By a shivering boy who wandered in
Before he could turn the television down.

Like his Belfast neighbours who lived with the menace of sectarian killings, he could only ‘Look sorrow in the face’, as he puts it in ‘Troubles’, a short poem concluding with the only possible verdict:

Call those thirty years
The Years of Disgrace.

Throughout those three decades Longley gave us solemn poems that take the human cost of the Troubles as their subject. He never had any desire to cultivate an epic voice and in his elegies for the victims keeps to an understated, personal idiom, as in ‘The Ice Cream Man’, with its statement of brutal fact – ‘They murdered the ice-cream man on the Lisburn Road’ – juxtaposed between a list of ice cream flavours and a catalogue of wild flowers – a Longleyesque perspective that amplifies the note of lament. In a later poem, ‘All of These People’, he reminds us again that the ice-cream man’s ‘… continuing requiem / Is the twenty-one flavours children have by heart’. The poem, in remembrance of other victims also, goes on to ask

Who was it who suggested that the opposite of war
Is not so much peace as civilisation?

Who can bring peace to people who are not civilised?
All of these people, alive or dead, are civilised.

He was a poet who could read the mind of war – his father’s Great War experiences led to an abiding interest in the war poets, from Homer to Edward Thomas – and peace when it came. His noble sense of the duties of the poet to memorialise has its apotheosis in his response to the August 1994 ceasefire, in the simply titled ‘Ceasefire’, a poem with the immediacy of breaking news and for which he found his metaphors in Greek tragedy.

I get down on my knees and do what must be done
And kiss Achilles’ hand, the killer of my son.

This was not the only time his classical reading was used with such proficiency. With that closing couplet, a stroke of ingenuity and the poet’s moment to serve history, he forged an unforgettable image to depict the triumph of peace over conflict.

The Portuguese poet Sophia de Mello Breyner Andresen, over whose work Homer also presides, believed that  ‘without mythic thought, man is unable to inhabit the world’. Longley would seem to have agreed, believing

… the best war memorial
Is in Homer: the two horses that refuse to budge
Despite threats and sweet-talk and the whistling whip.
( ‘The Horses’)

The Greek myths fuelled so much of his repertoire and in a succession of poems he refreshed those myths, particularly in the flow of volumes (Gorse Fires, The Ghost Orchid, The Weather in Japan) that not only marked a fertile return in the wake of a long lull in his writing life but also the beginning of a greater public profile as he emerged from years of silence in full command of a reinvigorated voice.

He will of course be remembered for the profusion of poems in praise of the natural world, the vitality of its small creatures and ‘birds of heaven’, its flora and fauna, represented on the page with the kind of delicacy we might associate with the meticulous impressionist detail of a Japanese watercolour. Like John Clare in the poem ‘Journey Out of Essex’, he was immersed in

… the biographies of birds
And the names of flowers

His nature poems possess a wonderful sense of composure – ‘I slow down the waterfall to a chandelier’, he writes in one poem. His slowing down, stilling of time, allows us to hear in these mediations the fluent voice of an observer on high alert:

The weasel and ferret, the stoat and fox
Move hand in glove across the equinox.

I can tell how softly their footsteps go –
Their footsteps borrow silence from the snow

Those lines from the lovely early poem ‘Persephone’ are characteristic of a lyrical tenderness that is well matched by his penetrating way of seeing things, picking up what might go unnoticed. Longley the nature poet seemed to find virtue in the things of nature, the wildflowers ‘bordering his journey’.

It has been said that ‘no place is a place until it has had a poet’. The Mayo landscape, and in particular his beloved Carrigskeewaun, the locus of many fine poems, got lucky when Longley made it his idyll and retreat and he became its poet, holding it up to us as the place where

Home is a hollow between the waves,
A clump of nettles, feathery winds,
And memory no longer than a day
When the animals come back to me
From the townland of Carrigskeewaun,
From a page lit by the milky way.
(‘Remembering Carrigskeewaun’)

A sensual love poet, he was without inhibition when it came to intimate detail. I once heard him say that the supreme form of love poem was the elegy, a form for which he consistently could find the necessary ‘heartbroken words’, whether in the public or private sphere – the latter giving rise to the magnificently moving sequence for his twin brother Peter.

He knew the effect of economy and the dangers of verbosity. The brief, darting poem became Longley’s forte, the kind that might look dainty on the page but carries notes of full strength. However condensed they may be, his short lyrics are abundantly visual.

Some critics have found his work ‘particularly hard to place’, as Jody Allen Randolph put it, citing him as ‘a poet apparently influenced by offbeat introverts …’ There is probably no better understanding of Longley’s aesthetic than the one provided by his great friend Brendan Kennelly, who said: ‘His sense of wonder at the thereness of things, at the fact of the facts of existence, is the source and substance of much of his poetry.’

Gerard Smyth is the author of ten volumes of poetry and several chapbooks, including The Haunted Radio (Bridgehorse Editions, St Paul, Minnesota ) published in 2024.

 

An Independent Initiative

Michael Lillis writes: President John F Kennedy was the guest of the Irish government for fully two days and two half-days between June 26th and 29th, 1963. Thirteen years later, by the summer of 1976, it had become obvious to me, influenced by a series of conversations with John Hume and a few others, that  one of the greatest errors of the Irish state since its inception was its conscious and deliberate failure to raise the problem of Northern Ireland with President Kennedy before, during or after his overwhelmingly successful four-day official visit to Ireland.

Of course it was well understood that the president did not want to be confronted in any way by this problem because he gave priority to the US-UK military and strategic relationship over his warm regard for the country of his ancestors; he had himself made this starkly clear to his advisers and, through them before his visit to Ireland in 1963, to the Irish Ambassador in Washington, Thomas Kiernan; his focus was almost exclusively on global politics and, as dramatically confirmed during the Cuban missile crisis, on the power relationship between the United States and the world’s other nuclear behemoth, the Soviet Union. His last stop before coming to Dublin on June 26th was in Berlin where, earlier that very day, he had delivered the most stirring defiance of the West to the Soviet threat in his clarion cry, ‘Ich bin ein Berliner’: that was what mattered; not the integrity or otherwise of the quarrel between the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone.

Clearly there could have been no conceivable likelihood of Dublin successfully urging the President of the United States to demand or support an end to partition or British withdrawal from Northern Ireland in 1963 (much less to support or condone any campaign of violence to secure that objective) – then or indeed at any time since 1963 – even though it was precisely that target that had animated the unsuccessful anti-Partition campaign, led energetically but most ironically by Conor Cruise O’Brien of the Department of External Affairs in the previous decade. In fact, demands from Dublin to end partition suited the British perfectly, precisely because they were impractical and facilitated the established custom of the British of ignoring the practices of flagrant injustice that had predominated on the ground in Northern Ireland since Partition. But a carefully designed policy of support for joint efforts between ‘our close friends’ in Dublin and London to support amity and reconciliation in Northern Ireland could have been perfectly conceivable, would have been difficult if not impossible for the British to be seen to reject, and could with determination and adroit management have been sold by Irish diplomacy in Washington and in London: conceivably it could have levered the urgent problem of Northern Ireland, with its constituent but unspoken issues of equality and justice, gently onto the shared agenda of the three governments.

Why was such an attempt not even conjured with in passing in Dublin? Partly I suggest because it had been the unstated policy in Dublin to avoid those issues, where they might distract from, or damage other desirable objectives, such as the glittering success of President Kennedy’s visit to Ireland, or the strategic vision and determination of the taoiseach, Seán Lemass, of Ireland joining the European Common Market in tandem with the UK with the minimum of ill-feeling between Dublin and London, and those other priorities prevailed. And because neither the US-born President de Valera, the master diplomat who had boldly recovered the Treaty Ports for Irish sovereignty, resolved the ‘economic war’ between Dublin and London in 1938 and followed this by successfully managing a policy of neutrality during the Second World War in the face of the fury of Winston Churchill in London (not to mention the unforgiving and unconcealed disdain of President Roosevelt and of millions of Americans for de Valera’s policy), nor Sean Lemass the strongly pro -European Common Market if previously ‘slightly constitutional’ taoiseach at the time, nor Frank Aiken, minister for external affairs, the former revolutionary leader, were willing to embarrass in the slightest way the most Irish of US presidents, even for one moment in an off-the-record private conversation, when he was virtually their social prisoner for several days.

It is  difficult to avoid the conviction that an element in the political culture of Dublin of the mid-sixties had been a mixture of timidity and lassitude. It should be added that the only policy on Northern Ireland articulated by the Dublin political establishment at the time was a demand to end partition, another way of demanding British withdrawal, which Britain could not under any conceivable circumstances concede or even consider. The leadership in Dublin knew perfectly well that this was an impossible demand and as such there seemed little point in trying to get the US to back it.

I was promoted in 1976 to counsellor (political) and transferred from New York to the Irish embassy in Washington. John Hume had told me confidentially that he was already working with Senator Edward Kennedy: their joint but confidential strategy had for some time been to have the president of the United States somehow become directly involved in moving the British government to confront the unionist veto on any project except unionist hegemony in Northern Ireland. Harold Wilson and his secretary of state, Merlyn Rees, had surrendered to that veto when they had yielded to the Loyalist workers’ strike and abandoned the Sunningdale power-sharing project in 1974. Hume believed that the only power on the planet capable of moving London from that state of frozen paralysis was that of the White House. Not resolutions in the US Congress or in American city halls, which the British could ignore and had done so. Not all the heft of all the active Irish-American organisations united in a single lobby (which did not at any rate exist) could begin to outweigh that unionist veto in Wilson’s London. And least of all would the United States be swayed by a campaign of violence waged against its closest and most strategic political ally, the United Kingdom, and its citizens; in fact, the US would act through its FBI, its CIA and its Bureau of Tobacco and Firearms against any such movement in order to protect the interests and the people of the UK; they would condemn it unreservedly and had done so in trenchant terms.

In sharing his strategy with me, as he may well have done with others such as Sean Donlon, my superior at headquarters in Dublin, who was a long-time friend of John’s, Hume enjoined me to absolute secrecy, including insisting adamantly that I should not share his plans with Dublin. This put me in a difficult position. As time moved on, I began to learn that this was fundamental to John’s seemingly paranoid, but probably shrewd, management of his own central strategy and that it extended to his relationship with his own most senior party colleagues in the Social Democratic and Labour Party, the SDLP. I did at all times share what I had learned from John with my ambassador, Jack Molloy, not out of any hierarchical deference or obligation, but because I had learned to trust his impermeable discretion and his wisdom about the way the government system worked in Dublin. ‘Binn béal ina thost’ (‘a silent mouth is the sweetest’, that is the most effective) was his regular mantra. I adopted a number of self-effacing strategies in reporting to Dublin, such as extensive use of the passive voice and eschewing any language which might suggest that I was playing any role whatsoever in furthering Hume’s strategy. I would for example report that ‘it had been heard on the grapevine’ that the house speaker, Tip O Neill (at that time the second most powerful politician in Washington, and for several purposes the most powerful), was considering supporting an effort along with Senators Kennedy and Moynihan and Governor Carey to influence President Jimmy Carter, when I had been briefed that very day in his own office to that effect by O’Neill himself.

I was renting a small traditional clapboard-fronted house on Q Street in Georgetown, Washington’s most prestigious and ‘social’ neighbourhood. I was most fortunate to find something remotely affordable there. So far as I could establish, only one Irish embassy colleague in the previous generation, the highly popular Michael Fitzgerald, had managed to find a house in Georgetown and have it approved by our system. My ambassador and boss, Jack Molloy, had to strain his room for manoeuvre to the limit in approving my little place. His decision proved most useful.

Shortly after my arrival in Washington I got to know Rosemary O’Neill, daughter of Tip (Thomas P), then majority (that is Democratic Party) leader in the House of Representatives. She was a distinguished diplomat at the State Department. She introduced me to her father, who was elected US Speaker in January 1977. In turn I arranged for John Hume to spend an evening at my home with Speaker O’ Neill, his wife and daughter and Jack Molloy. The two politicians hit it off immediately, both politically and personally: the evening ended, as always, very late, with both of them (and indeed Jack and myself) breaking into song. At this stage O’Neill, as constitutionally the senior politician in Congress, took over the leadership of the emerging ‘Four Horsemen’, the other three being Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York and Hugh Carey, governor of New York State. The relationship between O’ Neill and Kennedy was occasionally sensitive because they both vied for the position of the principal Irish leader or even – for some purposes such as US social security policy – the principal leader in US politics, and particularly so in the assertive worlds of Boston and Washington politics. I felt that whatever rivalry may have existed was more often sharper between their respective followers on the ground in Boston and in Washington than between the two of them personally. O’Neill was the epitome of a master local political boss in blue-collar North Cambridge while Kennedy was closer to Harvard and to the social world of the wealthy Brahmins who had viscerally despised the post-Famine Irish immigrants. When it came to their co-operation on Hume’s agenda, they were both unreservedly committed to working for a strategic breakthrough, rather than seeking personal profile or credit. They were unquestionably the leading US political drivers of the Hume project, O’Neill with his unchallenged authority in the House of Representatives and on whom President Carter depended almost abjectly for passage of his budget and a host of other legislative issues – and Kennedy with his years of mastery of the Senate. The key fact was that O’Neill met once a week with the president to discuss Carter’s agenda and there is no doubt that one of several key items on his list of major priorities was Hume’s project: and he was willing to trade cooperation on some of Carter’s domestic and foreign policy priorities, on some of which he may have been unenthusiastic, for the president’s support on Hume’s project. Never had any Irish political project in the United States enjoyed such leverage at the epicentre of American power.

O’Neill was a bear of a man, physically huge and very striking-looking with a ruddy complexion and a great sweeping curtain of silver hair. His nineteenth century background in Ireland was a grandfather bricklayer from Cork and his wife, Bridey Fullerton, from the Inishowen peninsula. (We accompanied him to the unforgettably beautiful but bleak site of the Fullerton homestead on his first highly emotional visit there in 1986). O’Neill was the supreme master of congressional politics, irresistibly charming but unshakeably stubborn, with an iron but slightly left-wing commitment to the New Deal tradition of the Democratic Party. In the Irish-American deeply Catholic tradition he was profoundly patriotic, but acknowledged that his children had talked him out of supporting the Vietnam War. He went through a similar evolution from supporting the IRA in his youth to becoming a devoted supporter of Hume’s rejection of violence in Ireland, even in the years before he met Hume.

It was during my junior years in Madrid (1967-72) that I had developed a fatal delight in the pleasure of smoking a Cuban cigar. At the outset I could buy one for a few pence thanks to the special trade regime between Communist Cuba and the right-wing Spanish dictatorship that allowed for this even during Franco’s life (Franco and Castro maintained an astonishingly good working relationship, consciously echoing their shared family backgrounds in Galicia, as Castro explained to me in Havana years later). The real pleasure lay in the aromatic sensation involved and never in inhaling the nicotine content of the tobacco. Once I left Madrid, I quickly discovered that the international price for these magnificent luxuries was beyond the capacity of most aficionados including myself. My mild addiction was fostered by diplomatic status wherever I could avail of that, because the price when tax-free, though still exorbitant, was relatively minuscule when compared with the international retail cost. In my years in New York (1974-76) I was able to have access to a supply through the good offices of a colleague in Ireland’s permanent mission to the United Nations who bought me the occasional box in the UN’s shop in New York. It must be recalled that following the failed Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba by right-wing Cuban expatriates, which was financed by President Kennedy’s CIA, the president imposed an embargo on trade with Cuba, eliminating Cuban cigars at a stroke from their largest market in the world, the USA. It seems that the president, who also cherished the pleasure of Cuban tobacco, sent a team of aides out across the country the day before the embargo became law to gather thousands of boxes for the White House. I kept a very modest supply of Cuban cigars in my house in Washington and I was astonished at O’Neill’s pure delight when I offered him one after dinner. We chatted in the kitchen later and I showed him where I kept a very small stock in the fridge. I gave him one or two to take home. I did not always lock my front door in Georgetown in those years and on one occasion I found Speaker O’ Neill unexpectedly in my own kitchen. Let us say that the pleasure of the odd Cuban cigar was a common interest.

In fact, we had a far stronger personal friendship focused rather on Northern Ireland and on Hume’s project. O’Neill came frequently to gatherings at the house, usually accompanied by ‘caravanserais’ of politicians, for the most part Democratic members of the house, but invariably with a good scattering of Republicans. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynahan never failed to show. When O’Neill was coming, Hume always tried to join the throng, coming down from Harvard, and on two memorable occasions he and his brilliant and lovely wife Pat came from Derry, bringing with them the musical tyro Phil Coulter, who kept everyone up demanding more and more songs from him into the small hours. On one of those nights, when there were upwards of a hundred politicians inside and outside my little house, a well-known republican Congressman declared to his friends’ astonishment that he was gay: this was still an unusual event but it was received warmly and with gentle understanding. On another morning-after-the-night-before I found Elliot Richardson, the President’s secretary for energy, a classical Brahminian Bostonian, and otherwise a scholarly man, snoring loudly on the living room couch.

Towards the end of 1976 the chiefs of staff of the Four Horsemen began to meet about once per week, more often than not at my house in Georgetown. I was included in these sessions, which planned strategy and drafted papers. On several occasions John, who was attending a seminar at the Kennedy School of Government in Harvard, would join us. From the beginning it was clear that, whatever form the project took, it would have to be minimally acceptable to the British, in other words it was inconceivable that the president of the US would take a position which was fundamentally condemning of, or directly or aggressively hostile to, his closest ally in the world. At the same time, it would have to place the political crisis in Northern Ireland firmly and openly for the first time since 1921 on the agenda of the foreign policy of the United States on an independent basis, hitherto an unimaginable development.

In essence Hume’s project envisaged that the president would commit to supporting a solution to the problem of Northern Ireland which would establish a form of government which would respect human rights and command widespread acceptance throughout both parts of the community (which was far from the reality in 1976/77) and, if that were achieved, the US would act to encourage job-creating investment for the region. Even more important than the precise substance of the proposal would be ending the US subservience to British policy on Northern Ireland which had obtained since 1921 and its replacement by an independent (of the UK) position by Washington.

It is important to recall the centrality of British-US relations to American foreign policy over the previous century. I had tried to summarise this reality in an interview with the filmmaker and author Maurice Fitzpatrick for his seminal book John Hume in America (Irish Academic Press, 2017): ‘By 1870 Britain’s position as the world’s only real superpower was beginning to be overtaken by the US, a disparity of power that continued apace. Rather than resort to war, which nearly happened in 1895 over Venezuela’s borders with British Guiana, Britain deliberately took the position of subservience to the world’s most dynamic State and it has never wavered from that stance. The US provided victory for Britain in two World Wars. In return Britain has been a reliable military ally to the US in most major conflicts ever since, most recently in Iraq, and a stalwart political supporter for the US in every multilateral forum. The US scrupulously avoided “interference” in internal British issues, notably in Anglo-Irish questions, despite agitation by Irish-American leaders in US cities and in Congress and despite repeated efforts of Irish nationalists in visits to America: Parnell, Pearse, de Valera among many others from 1880 to 1975.’

While O’Neill negotiated directly with the president, Senator Kennedy and his chief of staff, Carey Parker, dealt with Carter’s secretary of state (foreign minister) the veteran and powerful diplomat Cyrus Vance who, impelled by his own State Department (viewed by us as ‘more British than the British themselves’), the CIA, the Pentagon and at first by the National Security Adviser in the White House, Zbigniew Brzezinski, defending the British position of non-interference by the United States. At the same time British prime minister, Jim Callaghan, telephoned President Carter several times advising strongly that the US should hew to its traditional posture of strict ‘non-intervention’ (that is total support for British policy on Northern Ireland which effectively amounted to accepting unionist hegemony), while his son-in-law, Peter Jay, the eminent and gifted journalist, but now the British ambassador in Washington, weighed in with Carter and his White House on exactly the same lines. The US foreign policy establishment, notably the State Department and the CIA, were horrified at the idea that President Carter would move one inch away from the position of strict ‘non-interference’.

The first problem that presented itself to the Horsemen and their aides was to address the hostility systematically generated in London to any idea of the Horsemen having the right to express any view whatever about Northern Ireland. This was heralded in lurid headlines in British publications like the Sun, the Daily Express and the Daily Mail, which quite absurdly and against a mountain of evidence to the contrary represented Kennedy in particular as well as Irish-Americans in general as emotional supporters of the violence of the Provisional IRA and repeatedly rehearsed the tragedy of Chappaquiddick. More ‘serious’ broadsheets like the London Times and the Daily Telegraph echoed these campaigns in slightly less jingoistic terms.

The Four Horsemen, O’Neill, Kennedy, Moynihan and Carey, all of whom I got to know in those months, were each individually passionately opposed to support from America for the IRA’s campaign of violence and each had made several strong statements to that effect, risking real loss of voting support from vocal supporters of the IRA campaign (sometimes those with the most insistently ‘Irish’ profiles) in their own States and cities. On St. Patrick’s Day 1977 for the first time, they issued a joint statement which was drafted by our group of chiefs of staff and included Hume and myself:

The world has looked with increasing concern in the past eight years on the continuing tragedy that afflicts the people of Northern Ireland. Each of us has tried to use our good offices to help see that the underlying injustices at the heart of Northern Ireland are ended, so that a just and peaceful settlement may be secured. It is evident to us, as it is to concerned people everywhere, that continued violence cannot assist the achievement of such a settlement, but can only exacerbate the wounds that divide the people of Northern Ireland. We therefore join together in this appeal, which we make in a spirit of compassion and concern for the suffering people in the troubled part of Ireland. We appeal to all those organizations engaged in violence to renounce their campaigns of death and destruction and return to the path of life and peace. And we appeal as well to our fellow Americans to embrace this goal of peace, and to renounce any action that promotes the current violence or provides support or encouragement for organizations engaged in violence.

This had a highly significant impact in the English language media across the world and particularly in the US. It also marked the public emergence of the ‘Four Horsemen’ as a powerful political lobby in Washington. It was even acknowledged and welcomed by some of the more serious British media, who inevitably could not in several cases resist condescendingly attributing this ‘change’ in the understanding of the Four Horsemen to patient British briefing or the like. Significantly, however, for the Hume project, it was welcomed by a clear statement from 10 Downing St. The British tabloids meanwhile continued their calumnies about Kennedy and by extension about all Irish-Americans. But an essential start in delivering Hume’s strategy had been made.

Our Minister for Foreign Affairs, Garret FitzGerald, and his remarkable wife, Joan, visited Washington to mark St Patrick’s Day 1977. The taoiseach, Liam Cosgrave, had come the previous year as part of the select group of six countries chosen by the US (France, the UK, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Israel) to play a major role in its celebration of the bicentennial of US independence. In most ‘normal’ previous years the Irish ambassador would on the morning of St Patrick’s Day bring a Waterford Glass bowl filled with authentic sprigs of shamrock to a servants’ entrance to the White House, deliver the bowl by arrangement and depart. A brief press release in Dublin would record the transaction and Waterford Glass would publicise its vase. It could be said that the 1977 visit by our foreign minister to the White House began a process which has continued ever since, although it was raised to a much higher level in 1982 by an agreement between Tip O Neill and President Reagan, which was greatly facilitated by Ambassador Sean Donlon. From then on St. Patrick’s Day in Washington became a veritable political institution in itself.

The meeting at the White House with President Carter on the morning of St Patrick’s Day in 1977 was marred by two factors. A senior member of our minister’s retinue was inebriated and emitted the unmistakeable fumes of whiskey and was insisting on carrying the Waterford Glass bowl into the Oval Office, but a junior colleague, Sean Farrell, had the presence of mind to grab hold of it. This individual, like Paddy Donegan, the Minister for Defence in the previous year, was incapacitated uninterruptedly during the several days of FitzGerald’s visit and should have been excluded from every event in the programme. My friend the deputy national security adviser Robert Hunter, who was present, later told me that Brzezinski had commented to him that the scene reminded him of aspects of his own earlier life in Warsaw. Carter himself raised an eyebrow according to Hunter; he had of course been familiar with the behaviour of his brother Billy and it was well-known that his mother used to make her own whiskey and drink it on the stoop of her farmhouse in Plains, Georgia. President Carter’s wife Rosalynn, rather cruelly and unfairly dubbed ‘the iron magnolia’ by her critics, had famously banned all alcohol from the working areas of the White House, an unaccountable exception being made for Bailey’s Irish Cream.

The second problem arose from the fact that the Horsemen and their aides advised that it was too early to raise the details of the Hume project with Carter, as they felt that further detailed discussion between O’Neill and the president was necessary first. FitzGerald, himself a gifted diplomat of unusual sensitivity, managed this tricky problem and, without referring to any specific text, left Carter with a clear message that a statement from the White House calling in general for reconciliation in Northern Ireland would be enormously beneficial and of historic importance. One of FitzGerald’s talents could occasionally itself cause a problem: his mental processes and his speech were so rapid and his articulation so intricate that it could sometimes be difficult for his interlocutors or his audience to grasp the essence of his message. In this case the White House had to enquire of us through Hunter after the meeting ended, as to what his main points were: this gave FitzGerald the opportunity to ensure that the president got the full burden of his message.

On the other hand, inside the Four Horsemen’s camp it now became possible, with Hume’s agreement, to overcome the confusion caused by his earlier obsession about confidentiality. This was a relief for the Dublin-based team, not least for myself. FitzGerald was totally committed to the Hume-Kennedy project and confirmed this enthusiastically in separate exchanges with Tip O Neill, Ted Kennedy, Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Hugh Carey. On Jack Molloy’s proposal, supported by Sean Donlon, he confirmed to the Four Horsemen that I would be the operational representative of the Irish government in the negotiation of the final text.

I introduced the FitzGeralds at my home to the chiefs of staff who were based in Washington (Carey’s man David Burke could not join us from New York): Kirk O’Donnell for Tip O’Neill was the discreet though masterful leader of the speaker’s agenda for the House of Representatives which provided all its financial resources to the US Government, a powerful player in his own right. Carey Parker, Senator Kennedy’s long-time chief adviser, and widely viewed as the single most talented aide in the US Congress, had drafted all of Kennedy’s enormous legacy on US public health legislation. Tim Russert, Moynihan’s aide with grounded Irish-American working class roots in Buffalo, New York, was in some ways the ‘character’ of the group; his power of mimicry was uncanny and legendary and he practised it fearlessly and hilariously in front of Moynihan (who was its main object) and FitzGerald; he later became for fifteen years host of the most admired politics weekend programme on US TV, NBC’s Meet the Press.

By coincidence Ronan Fanning, the most distinguished historian of Anglo-Irish relations (and conflicts) of his generation, was fulfilling semesters of teaching and research duties as a Fulbright Scholar at Georgetown University on the American role in the history of Anglo-Irish relations. Nothing could have been more serendipitous. During several months at Georgetown, he was a colleague and friend of Henry Kissinger’s (Kissinger told him that the European foreign minister he most enjoyed arguing with was Garret FitzGerald). The FitzGeralds introduced Ronan to me and I soon realised that he was a scholar and master of realpolitik, especially in the field of Anglo-Irish relations: his masterpiece Fatal Path; British Government and Irish Revolution 1910-1922 (Faber and Faber, 2013) is the authoritative account of the evolution of the attitudes of British leadership to Irish political events North and South leading to independence and the partition of Ireland. I brought him into our sessions with the congressional chiefs of staff. His contributions on the contemporary and historical attitudes of the British establishment to Irish issues provided extremely valuable insights to our group including myself. Thus began one of the most fruitful and precious friendships of my life.

I also introduced Garret and Joan FitzGerald to Brzezinski’s deputy at the crucial National Security Agency in the White House, Robert Hunter, and his brilliant girlfriend, Shareen, a former member of the pre-revolutionary Iranian foreign service. Robert had inherited some Irish genes from a few centuries earlier but had no Irish nationalist background. He had been hired by the White House from Kennedy’s congressional team as an expert on East-West military and strategic relations (he was later US ambassador to NATO). Though he was first and foremost Carter’s and Brzezinski’s man, his own connection with the Kennedy world was undoubtedly helpful. We shared some private literary enthusiasms, notably for Joyce and Yeats as well as for Shakespeare and John Keats, and we indulged these by declaiming and carousing in sessions in the bars of Georgetown, notably the French bistro ‘Au Pied du Cochon’ where we sometimes closed the premises at a rather late hour.

Joan especially revelled in the slightly rarified social world of Georgetown where neighbours (senators, media personalities, writers and socialites) would happily wander in and out of each other’s houses, particularly at the cocktail hour.

Once drafting had begun for a possible statement by Carter, Bob Hunter found himself at the centre of vigorous tugs of war between Hume’s ambitious project fronted by the Four Horsemen, Hume and the Irish government and the resistance to it mounted by the US foreign policy establishment led by the State Department and the British government. I found myself at the ‘grunt’ level of this engagement and in constant creative combat with Robert.

The Four Horsemen presented the first draft of a statement by the President to the White House (that is Hunter). Hume and I contributed to this version which included elements which we knew would be rejected at this stage by the other side, that is the State Department and the British, for example the constitutional issue. I also had the benefit of inputs from John Hume, with whom I was in constant contact, from our minister, Garret FitzGerald, from my boss in Dublin, Sean Donlon, and from my wise ambassador, Jack Molloy. Ted Smyth, our press officer in New York (my old job), was a great help in the final days before Carter’s statement was issued. Over twenty versions of the text were exchanged back and forth over several months. On our side we held stubbornly to our central objective, that is that the US was taking a position independent of London for the first time on Northern Ireland. At one point, Hodding Carter, the deputy head of the State Department and one of America’s most esteemed diplomats, uttered his side’s version of a cri de coeur to his friend Ted Kennedy: ‘If all the parties were to conclude the US could play a useful role, we would naturally consider what we might do. However, none of the parties concerned has requested the US to take an active part. In the absence of such a request, the US Government is convinced that US intervention would be inappropriate and counter-productive.’

Many years later Jimmy Carter summed up the realpolitik drama at the centre of this tussle:

Well, the State Department was not in favour of what I did, as you may know. But I didn’t consult with them too thoroughly: I had a lot of confidence in Pat Moynihan, and Tip O’Neill was visiting me every day. Hugh Carey was very important to me as a politician, so was Ted Kennedy. So those four people, who had connections directly with Ireland, were good.’ (Speaking to Maurice Fitzpatrick for his film and book John Hume in America, p 65)

Along the way Peter Jay, the British ambassador in Washington, decided to face reality and to make the best of a difficult situation:

The British Government had reached the conclusion that the help and support of those four heavy-hitting Irish-American politicians in discouraging misguided people, or people anyway, from sending arms and money to support terrorism on the island of Ireland was a very important objective, an objective, an objective shared by the government in London and the government in Dublin. If it meant swallowing a bit of antique pride about having comments on the domestic affairs of the so-called UK, well that was a very modest price to pay for a very modest objective.

Speaker O’Neill told me afterwards that he was proud of his own role and of that of his colleagues in delivering the Carter Initiative. He described the negotiation as being as impressive as the famed campaigns of the Government of Israel in Washington. Coming from the Speaker, who operated at the absolute centre of all Washington power struggles, this was a significant acknowledgement.

The president’s full statement was issued on August 30th, 1977 and attracted relatively little notice at the time. The Irish media and Irish politicians, with few exceptions (notably Hume and FitzGerald) failed to see the true strategic and historic originality or value of the initiative: the fact that for the first time since partition the President of the United States took a positive position on Northern Ireland, independently of London. Its unprecedented essence, despite its polite disavowal of any intention to influence the process, was in its unmistakeable call for power-sharing: ‘We support the establishment of a form of government in Northern Ireland which will command widespread acceptance throughout both parts of the community and protects human rights and guarantee freedom from discrimination’. It became the template and original authority for all US subsequent ‘interventions’ on Northern Ireland, most notably President Reagan’s pressure on Margaret Thatcher to conclude the Anglo-Irish Agreement on Northern Ireland of 1985 with the Taoiseach Garret FitzGerald, in which Sean Donlon played a central role. It played an important part in agreeing the Downing St. Declaration of 1993, guided intellectually by Sean Ó Huigínn, Ireland’s most influential and creative diplomat, whose profound contribution was resentfully acknowledged in the  sobriquet assigned to him by Westminster tittle-tattle: ‘the Prince of Darkness’, which I painfully envied (Sean was subsequently Irish ambassador to the US). It final fruition was in the central and active role played by President Bill Clinton with both governments and the political parties in Northern Ireland in delivering the Good Friday Agreement of April 1998 and in which the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, Martin Mansergh, Tim Dalton and Dermot Gallagher played key roles for the Irish government, again with John Hume, who was accurately described by Senator George Mitchell, chairman of the talks leading to it, as ‘the founding father’ of that historic settlement in Anglo-Irish relations which finally brought an end to political violence in Northern Ireland. The Carter Initiative (attached) is one of the foundation documents of the Irish peace process and one of its vital assets; it profoundly transformed the basic power calculus of Anglo-Irish relations as epitomised in Margaret Thatcher’s tongue-in-cheek explanation to Lord McAlpine, the treasurer of the Conservative Party, for her motivation in signing the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985: ‘The Americans made me do it.’

 

The Carter Statement of August 30th, 1977

Throughout our history, Americans have rightly recalled the contributions men and women from many countries have made to the development of the United States. Among the greatest contributions have been those have been those of the British and Irish people, Protestant and Catholic alike. We have close ties of friendship with both parts of Ireland and with Great Britain.

It is natural that Americans are deeply concerned about the continuing violence in Northern Ireland. We know the overwhelming majority of the people there reject the bomb and the bullet. The United States wholeheartedly supports peaceful means for finding a just solution that involves both parts of the community of Northern Ireland and protects human rights and guarantees freedom from discrimination – a solution that the people of Northern Ireland, as well as the Governments of Great Britain and Ireland can support. Violence cannot resolve Northern Ireland’s problems; it can only increase them and solves nothing.

We hope that all those engaged in violence will renounce this course and commit themselves to peaceful pursuit of legitimate goals. The path of reconciliation, cooperation and peace is the only course that can end the human suffering and lead to a better future for all the people of Northern Ireland. I ask all Americans to refrain from supporting with financial or other aid organizations whose involvement, direct or indirect, in this violence delays the day when the people of Northern Ireland can live and work together in harmony, free from fear. Federal law enforcement agencies will continue to apprehend and prosecute any who violate US laws in this regard.

US Government policy on the Northern Ireland issue has long been one of impartiality, and that is how it will remain. We support the establishment of a form of government in Northern Ireland which will command widespread acceptance throughout both parts of the community. However, we have no intention of telling the parties how this might be achieved. The only permanent solution will come from the people who live there. There are no solutions that outsiders can impose.

At the same time, the people of Northern Ireland should know that they have our complete support in their quest for a peaceful and just society. It is a tribute to Northern Ireland’s hard-working people that the area has continued to attract investment, despite the violence committed by a small minority. This is to be welcomed, since investment and other programmes to create jobs will assist in ensuring a healthy economy and combating unemployment.

It is still true that a peaceful settlement would contribute immeasurably to stability in Northern Ireland and so enhance the prospects for increased investment. In the event of such a settlement, the US Government would be prepared to join with others to see how additional job-creating investment could be encouraged, to the benefit of all the people of Northern Ireland.

I admire the many friends of Northern Ireland in this country who speak out for peace. Emotions run high on this subject, and the easiest course is not to stand up for reconciliation. I place myself firmly on the side of those who seek peace and reject violence in Northern Ireland.

6/1/2025

Michael Lillis was diplomatic adviser to the taoiseach, Garret FitzGerald, in 1981 and one of the negotiators of the Anglo-Irish Agreement between 1983 and 1985. He was the first Irish joint secretary at the Anglo-Irish Secretariat in the ‘Bunker’ at Maryfield, Belfast from 1985 to ’87. Subsequently he was involved in aircraft leasing in Latin America and is co-author with Ronan Fanning of Scandal and Courage: the Lives of Eliza Lynch (1992).

Not Mentioning Appeasement

Catherine Toal writes: The beauty of an historic Irish house is shot through with horror. That castellated manor rising at the end of the grassy avenue was a barracks in Cromwell’s time. And don’t even think about what the view from this remote abbey must have looked like around 1847. If only such places were truly historical. I don’t mean that they are the prototype for our current problem with houses, despite a few hundred having been burned down between 1919 and 1923. Or that they aren’t among our most valuable treasures. A visit to the estates in public ownership is a joy open to all. It’s just that sometimes awkward facts about the past get discreetly covered over.

A striking example can be found at Mount Stewart, a National Trust property on the Ards Peninsula in Co Down and family seat of the Earls of Londonderry. When I first visited, it was late July, and the main street of the nearest town, Comber, fluttered with Union-Jack and Ulster-flag bunting. The coronation of Charles III had recently taken place, and a kind of entrance arch curved over the road, showing King Billy and a scene from that other sequence precious to Northern Protestant memory, the Battle of the Somme. The new inclusion, among the insignia of the Twelfth, of a present-day male monarch, both of whose namesakes lived in the seventeenth century, seemed to bring 1690 closer, however much the actual Charles III, who showed an irritable temperament at his Northern Irish investiture, might dislike such a retrograde implication. The arch made Comber look like a recaptured enclave in the Williamite wars.

My great-grandfather, a Protestant, had been a farrier at an estate near Lough Neagh, and died at the Somme. After genealogical somersaults of a type more common before the Troubles, our whole family was now ‘Catholic’ (I grew up in the South), and tended to regard expressions of fervour such as those visible that day in Comber as evidence of a people duped by a landed ruling class. To see these flags in the townland of another large country estate, amid emblems of the cataclysm in which my great-grandfather died, was a reminder of the accidents of identity. From a nationalist perspective, Mount Stewart boasts the epitome of aristocratic perfidy: its most famous proprietor was Lord Castlereagh, architect of the Union between Britain and Ireland in 1801.

With the distance of time, Castlereagh seems more fascinating for the way his life fits the violent fluctuations of the Revolutionary era, similar in this regard to the radical Romantic poets, Shelley and Byron, who utterly loathed him. Heir to wealth and political influence built on the Indian colonial gains of Scottish planter forebears, Castlereagh almost drowned in Strangford Lough when a schoolboy. Admired for his skill in helping to realign post-Napoleonic Europe at the Congress of Vienna in 1815, he was blamed in England for the 1819 massacre at Peterloo, when cavalry charged a rally in Manchester calling for parliamentary reform, causing eighteen deaths. As if unable to sustain this contradiction between establishment honour and public infamy, Castlereagh went mad while still in office, slitting his own throat with a penknife.

Despite such forbidding associations, the first impression generated by Mount Stewart is one of warmth and welcome. The russety slate of its columned porch and sweeping side-wings convey the sense almost of a hearth, and the entrance stretches level with the gravelled ground, rather than towering loftily above grand gardens. The gardens themselves are whimsical instead of showy, fanning out from the side of the house and meandering around the back in a riot of fanciful shapes: a plant, tree and cement menagerie. Toward the front, the lawns give way to an enticing and gentle panorama overlooking a lake. Inside the house, a cosiness emanates from olive-green, dark pink and mustard colours, and from the joyfully domed main hall, arrayed in white, with marble statues. Perhaps the strongest sense of warmth comes from the hospitable guides, who appear, articulate and kindly, in each room, offering a spontaneous story about an aspect of the contents.

Best known among these are probably the gilt-coated chairs from the Congress of Vienna, which appear in that famous painting of the delegates by Jean-Baptiste Isabey. Less imposing, though certainly more disturbing, and clearly visible on the mantelpiece in the library, is a twentieth-century trinket: the figurine of an SS flag-bearer. It was a gift to the seventh Earl of Londonderry, either from Joachim von Ribbentrop, his house guest in 1936, or (in the same year) from Hermann Göring, whose Brandenburg hunting lodge Londonderry visited several times before the war. The porcelain company that manufactured the piece was established by Heinrich Himmler to introduce Nazi insignia into German domestic life, and provide presents for functionaries of the regime. After 1937, production increasingly relied on slave labour from Dachau concentration camp.

Notably, the story of this ornament does not feature in the lore of the house. An exhibition to the left of the entrance hall, though it foregrounds the family of the seventh Londonderry, concentrates on his part in the first government of Northern Ireland, when he and his wife, Lady Edith, ‘[brought] their sense of aristocratic duty to Ulster’. ‘Diplomacy and public duty’ pervading ‘every aspect of their existence’, they made Mount Stewart ‘a place for conversation and inclusivity’. ‘Luckily,’ the text goes on, ‘Lady Edith had natural charm, and an ability to reconcile people of different classes and political persuasions with [sic] a love of art and culture.’ This summary alludes to Londonderry’s brief tenure as minister for education, when he tried (and failed) to introduce non-denominational primary-level schooling. His efforts might be seen as at once progressive and doomed by the partisan and contested jurisdiction he was helping to administer. The emphasis on ‘inclusivity’ rings oddly, also in view of the first Northern Ireland cabinet’s abolition of proportional representation, which copper-fastened majority rule at all levels.

At the door of the library, the guide on the day I visit waves his hand over the porcelain ornaments in the room, and says that they are mostly caricatures of bygone Westminster luminaries. The SS figurine, though on display, isn’t mentioned. Not that its presence is uniquely damning for the seventh earl’s biography. In Making Friends with Hitler, Third Reich expert Ian Kershaw argues that Londonderry’s later career formed part of a wider British aristocratic investment in appeasement. Humiliated by his dismissal as secretary of state for air in 1935, and animated by strongly anti-French and anti-communist views, Londonderry seems to have become a kind of freelance broker for rapprochement with Germany in attempted imitation of the diplomatic bravura of his ancestor, Castlereagh. Hardly hindered in this project by antisemitic prejudices ‘quite normal in his class’ (so the historian Geoffrey Best once put it), he regarded the emerging persecution of German Jews primarily as a baffling strategic blunder. Once the Munich Agreement was breached, however, he was on board with the war effort, and was never an actual proponent of Nazism in the way that some other upper-class appeasers (such as the Duke of Westminster) were.

When dealing with the seventh Londonderry’s generation, the brochure for Mount Stewart focuses on Lady Edith and her achievements as a host, gardener and organiser of local volunteers during the war. Her portrait also emblazons its cover. The section on the sixth earl seems by contrast frankly political, stressing his anti-Home-Rule agitation and signing of the Ulster Covenant in 1912. The presentation of the house calls to mind a phrase that recurs in a now-classic novel, Kazuo Ishiguro’s The Remains of the Day. Through his contemporary notoriety as a putative Nazi sympathizer, the seventh Londonderry offered one inspiration for Ishiguro’s material. Both the earl at the centre of the novel’s plot, and his faithful butler, the narrator, refer to ‘errors, trivial in themselves’ that ‘may have a larger significance’. This formulation confesses even as it covers up their respective evasions. Mount Stewart’s exhibition text sometimes resembles the butler’s flattering euphemisms. In deploying Lady Edith to finesse the reputation of her husband, the brochure forgets that she too was at one point a very public admirer of Adolf Hitler, publishing in 1936 a laudatory article about meeting this ‘man with wonderful farseeing eyes’. Perhaps we are all considered too avid for ‘cancellations’ to tolerate complexity. But when it comes to the historic house – as with many other monuments of the past – ugliness (and far worse) remains ingrained in beauty.

20/12/2024

 

Slow March to Peace

Michael Lillis writes: During March 1993 I met with Gerry Adams for two full days and one half-day in Dublin and briefly afterwards at a house in West Belfast. I had left the Irish public service in 1990, where I had served as diplomatic adviser to the taoiseach in 1982 and a negotiator of the Anglo-Irish Agreement between 1983 and ’85 and was therefore, as a private citizen, no longer subject to any official political direction. My reason for meeting Gerry Adams was not to negotiate with him or to persuade him of anything. It was simply to respond to a request to do so from my friend the brilliant journalist and activist Mary Holland. Mary was the only journalist whom I had briefed confidentially throughout the negotiation of the Anglo-Irish Agreement between 1983 and 1985, mainly because she had uniquely well-informed sources at the heart, not alone of republican and loyalist politics (including their paramilitary leaders), but the SDLP leadership (including crucially John Hume) and several key ministers and officials (including my former opposite number in the Anglo-Irish negotiations, David Goodall) at the heart of Mrs Thatcher’s cabinet and her cabinet office. It was valuable to have a sense of Mary’s ‘read’, as an exceptionally well-connected ‘outsider’ to these constituencies as the rumours about our negotiations continued to percolate. She had not once betrayed, even indirectly, the confidentiality of her conversations with me, even though the urge to do so for a journalist who was widely seen as a reliable and remarkably well-informed expert on Dublin, London and ‘paramilitary’ politics (from the leadership of the Provisional IRA across to the UDA and the UVF) must have been overwhelming. She strongly believed in the hope for peace that lay in the secret negotiations between London and Dublin which led to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985 and she would not have written or done anything that could possibly undermine them.

In counterpart she had been willing to give me her advice and even to share highly relevant information that she had gleaned from her many sources. I give one example: in early 1985 we were fairly confident that, subject to the eventual views of the lord chancellor, Baron Hailsham, Mrs Thatcher was seriously ‘open’ to the taoiseach’s advocacy for ‘mixed courts’ between North and South as part of an eventual package. Mary told me that she had in recent days attended the obsequies for a prominent senior Tory on an exceptionally cold morning in London and was walking away from the church when a Rolls Royce had drawn up at the footpath beside her and a voice from the back seat had urged her to ‘hop in’. It was Lord Hailsham himself, enveloped in rugs and petting his Pekingese. He started to talk about the judges in the Northern Ireland courts. ‘Those men do our dirty work for us, Mary,’ he insisted. Coming from the very heart of the British judicial system, this little cameo for me sounded the death-knell for one of Garret FitzGerald’s cherished projects, as in due course the British side confirmed to us. As an aside, I might add that, despite the many efforts of subsequent years, including the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, this particular initiative never again, as far as I know, surfaced in discussions between London and Dublin.

In early March 1993 Mary had urged me to meet with Adams to answer his questions about the British method of diplomatic negotiation. She believed that Adams in particular was moving towards meeting with the British and would benefit, and possibly even be encouraged, by talking to someone who had had some experience of dealing with them at a significant level. I had no illusions either about Gerry Adams’s position as a coldly determined leader of the Provisional IRA or indeed on the other hand about the darker skills of British diplomacy, much less about my own powers as a persuader who could move Gerry Adams away from violence and onto the path to reconciliation and peace. At the same time I felt that if I could play a modest role as a respondent to questions about my own experience – and not as an advocate for any particular political approach by Gerry Adams – it might conceivably help slightly to begin to dilute the permafrost that for decades had frozen the leader of the Provisional IRA out of any level whatever of what I might call ordinary political dialogue with his adversaries. Moreover I was persuaded that, as an entirely independent non-political individual, a willingness to engage with him only on the basis of trying to answer his questions about British diplomatic method could, at worst, do no harm.

I should add that, again as a private individual, I told the former taoiseach Garret FitzGerald that I was inclined to respond to Mary Holland’s invitation on these lines. He was not happy but he did not formally try to forbid my doing so. Had he done so I think that I would have desisted.

And so I met with Gerry Adams on three successive days at Mary’s house in Ranelagh, formerly the home of Thomas MacDonagh, the poet and leader of the 1916 Rising executed with the other leaders by the British. Although on the first day of our exchanges, neither Gerry Adams nor I asked Mary to withdraw, she did so, leaving Gerry Adams and me alone with each other. During the first quarter of an hour we spoke in Irish. His Irish was quite fluent. Mine was perhaps even more so. The only difficulty we confronted was that I spoke the dialect of West Cork, whereas his dialect was a Belfast version of the Donegal Gaeltacht. Communication was possible but not easy, so we reverted to English.

I had told Mary that I would have to make a statement of my own abhorrence of the Provisional IRA’s campaign of violence at the outset and I asked her kindly to ensure that Gerry Adams understood that this was a condition of my involvement in the exchanges with him.

I spoke briefly though in strong terms of my outright rejection of the Provisional IRA’s twenty-year campaign of violence, of its complete lack of legitimacy or justification, how it had destroyed the lives and hopes of an entire generation and of the shame and revulsion that it caused me as an Irish person. Gerry Adams listened calmly without interruption or response.

I then moved on to the issue of the modalities and strategies of British negotiation and tried to respond to a series of questions he posed to me. It was clear that he had given serious thought to these issues and had previously read a good deal about them. It was clear, for example, that he had seriously considered the compelling book on negotiation ‘Getting to Yes’ by Roger Fisher and William Ury, or had been in discussion with someone who was familiar with its analysis. I tried to keep my answers at the level of theoretical abstraction. My main point was to emphasise a point developed by Clausewitz on the priority of winning the result above winning the argument as a strategic and tactical objective in negotiation.

After a few hours, however, his questions turned to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, in the negotiation of which I had been involved for a number of years. I was comfortable to discuss the background to the negotiation of this treaty, mainly because I knew that Hume had repeatedly used the terms of this Agreement to argue that the Agreement, particularly in Article 2 (C) which provided for British active support for Irish unity in the event that a majority in Northern Ireland desired such a settlement, removed even from a republican viewpoint any justification for continuing their campaign of violence and once and for all ended the hitherto impermeable Unionist veto. I did not seek to preach at him in these terms but continued to cite the simple text itself, how it had been agreed and its profound historic significance. I also cited the provisions of the Agreement on the ground-breaking role of the Irish government for the first time in Northern Ireland and strong and detailed support for power-sharing as evidence that it was possible to work for progress through negotiation with a British government , even one led by Mrs Thatcher. This was the one point in these lengthy exchanges, the mention by name of Margaret Thatcher, where Gerry Adams showed an emotional response, which was hardly surprising.

The discussion continued throughout a second day and only concluded at lunchtime on the third. By then it was clear to me that he was determined to find a way to negotiate with the British and even the Irish government. He did not express this desire in precisely those terms but his intense curiosity and controlled but unmistakeable enthusiasm throughout left me in no doubt that he hoped to move to a negotiating strategy which obviously would not be compatible with continuing the IRA’s campaign of violence. I should add that we did not discuss this aspect either as it was outside the question-and-answer framework which had been the agreed basis of our exchanges.

By this time our relationship had become less formal and I would say more friendly. In no sense did he try to persuade me of the justification for the IRA’s campaign of violence, any more than I had tried to persuade him to abandon that campaign. But, without returning to my opening statement, we each knew exactly where the other stood.

At this time I was trying quite separately in my new job to advance several aircraft leasing campaigns on behalf of GE Capital in Latin America, one in Colombia and the other in Paraguay. I remember driving to Belfast in Mary’s car and engaging in frantic mobile phone calls with a Colonel Maldonado of the Paraguayan air force on the terms to conclude the lease of an elderly DC10-30 aircraft which Maldonado and I finally concluded just when Mary and I arrived at Gerry Adams’ a ‘safe house’ in West Belfast. As it happened it was not possible to continue my dialogue with Adams that day because of local security concerns, which were exacerbated by a series of loyalist murders in the area. I saw enough to confirm that Gerry Adams was a genuinely popular figure in that neighbourhood.

I returned to Asunción, the capital of Paraguay, to sign that deal with the Paraguayan national airline LAPSA. While there I had a phone call from John Hume who said he needed to see me as a matter of great urgency. We arranged to meet in Terminal 1 at Heathrow early in the morning two days later. I flew from Asunción to São Paulo in Brazil and onwards to arrive in Heathrow early as arranged.

John was, as always, friendly, though clearly somewhat agitated. He told me that he was involved in a crucial negotiation with Gerry Adams which he believed might lead to a ceasefire by the Provisional IRA. He had learned somehow that I was involved in a discussion with Adams and was very concerned that this could be or could become a source of confusion and could even disrupt the prospects for the success of his own efforts. I was generally aware that John Hume had been in dialogue with Gerry Adams for some time, but did not have any inkling that those discussions were close to a breakthrough or to an IRA ceasefire. I gave him a brief but succinct account of my own exchanges with Adams, emphasising that they were simply an exercise in responding to his questions about my own earlier dealings with the British in the run-up to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985. John gave me an account of the key issues he was seeking to resolve with Adams, notably on the definition of Irish ‘self-determination’, which later became central to the Downing Street Declaration and he showed me some texts he was working on. I assured him that this matter was never touched on in my own question-and-answer sessions with Gerry Adams, who perfectly understood that I represented no one except myself. He asked me to desist from my conversations with Gerry Adams. Without the slightest hesitation I said I would do so immediately, but that I would, unless he objected, send a message to Gerry Adams through Mary Holland saying that I was terminating our exchanges in order to avoid any possibility of confusion. He agreed to this and we parted on the best of terms.

I have kept a few of my notes for the message in Irish that I sent to Adams through Mary Holland when I arrived in Dublin later that very day. I did not mention the name of John Hume or the matter of ‘self-determination’ in my message (this in case my letter were intercepted) but I did say that I understood that important conversations were taking place involving priests and other religious and that progress was being made. I said that I had been asked to desist from my conversations with him, Gerry Adams, so as to avoid any confusion arising and I had agreed to that request. I added that I urged him to make every possible effort to ensure success in those other discussions. I finished by saying that, in spite of the enormous differences between us, I had concluded that he was a serious and able person and that perhaps in the future it might be possible for us to meet again.

Through Mary Holland I received a reply in Gerry Adams’s handwriting dated Belfast, 2 April 1993. I have kept the original. The first paragraph was in Irish and the remainder in English:

Dear Michael
I have received your letter and I am grateful to you for it. At the same time I regret your message because I think our discussion was very useful. One matter does not interfere with the other. Therefore I would like to continue.
Michael, whatever else you may have been told our discussions can only assist efforts to find a settlement, or a process which aims to do so. Nothing is jeopardized by our discussions. On the contrary they are beneficial, not least because some of my associates, who are privy to what is being attempted, are pleased that we have met. For our discussions to end, at the behest of someone else, whose reasons for doing so are unclear, would not be well received. It will not cause great impact but you know how important goodwill is and how nuances and little things can affect perceptions.
There you are!! I must say that our discussions have been of benefit to me, personally and politically. No possible harm can come from such exchanges only good. Excuse this scribble. My writing is almost as bad as yours.
Slán
Gerry
PS: The castle above is not my Áras. (Note: referring to a design on his notepaper). This is the only paper at hand!’

That was the last communication I had with Gerry Adams.

Michael Lillis was diplomatic adviser to the taoiseach, Garret FitzGerald, in 1981 and one of the negotiators of the Anglo-Irish Agreement between 1983 and 1985. He was the first Irish joint secretary at the Anglo-Irish Secretariat in the ‘Bunker’ at Maryfield, Belfast from 1985 to ’87. Subsequently he was involved in aircraft leasing in Latin America and is co-author with Ronan Fanning of Scandal and Courage: the Lives of Eliza Lynch (1992).

8/12/2024

 

 

The West and the Rest

John Fanning writes: Trump 2 arrives at a time when a new world order, or disorder, as it has been called, is already well under way. If Britain ruled the waves, and a good part of the land, in the nineteenth century and America took over the reins in the twentieth we now seem to be faced with a riderless, rudderless world. America is still in charge but China, champing at the bit, is narrowing the gap. Much of the analysis of the race is couched in apocalyptic terms assuming that a major conflict between the US and China is unavoidable. Martin Pottinger , a US security analyst who served in Trump 1 believes that ‘we are now at the foothills of a great power hot war’. Chinese leader Xi has ordered the Peoples Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. A new book, Westlessness, presents a more balanced view of our times, its catchy title suggesting that the West will be less, that this will result in a certain amount of restlessness, but that Armageddon can be avoided if calm heads prevail. The well-qualified author, Dr Samir Puri, has worked for the Rand Corporation in the US, the Foreign Office in London and a think tank in Singapore. He was a war studies lecturer at King’s College and is an assistant Fellow at Chatham House. His breadth of experience is evident in this wide-ranging book which aptly fulfils its objective; to ‘provide the inspiration, the data and the intellectual scaffolding to support your mental framework for understanding a less western world’. His basic thesis is that the West is not facing collapse but readjustment while accepting that previously dominant powers find readjustment very difficult. Just look at Britain: the disaster that is Brexit stems from a failure to readjust to reality after a whole century of decline.

Perhaps Puri’s most important contribution to the current state of the world is his comprehensive analysis of how the West was won, and in particular its cavalier treatment of the rest of the world during this process. He starts by reminding us that in the great scheme of things the West is only an upstart: for centuries prior to 1500 it was a barbarous backwater. Economically and intellectually, the East was ahead of the rest up to the sixteenth century. Then, enriched by New World wealth, Spain became a superpower. Other European countries followed suit by plundering the African and Asian continents. Intense rivalry between competing European powers ensued but by the nineteenth century Britain emerged as the dominant power. Europe’s military superiority resulted in cavalier treatment of the rest of the world, but China endured ‘a century of humiliation’ from roughly the 1860s to the 1960s after the British cynically induced mass addiction to opium to further their own commercial interests. From the mid-nineteenth century China was reduced to a state of dependency on Japan and a number of Western countries and although it was not formally colonised to the Chinese it felt like it. Little wonder they are so determined that this will never happen again which explains their Belt and Road initiative designed to extend their influence in the Global South and why they have become South America’s biggest trading partner. While oil replaced coal as the most important source of energy in the early twentieth century, lithium, the ultimate energy storage material essential for powering electric cars, laptops and smartphones, will be crucial for economic success in the twenty-first century and the world’s biggest reserves are in the South American ‘lithium triangle’: Chile, Bolivia, Argentina.

But the West’s, and in particular the US’s, challenges are not confined to China. Puri points out that while China, as well as Russia and Iran, are defiant, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are disobedient, and India and Indonesia are ambivalent. But he is careful to emphasise that instead of a grand victory for one side ‘we are entering a period of shared winnings between a myriad of western, western aligned, western-sceptic and anti-western centres of power and influence all co-existing for the foreseeable future – it is most unlikely we will see the triumph of one system over another’.

Puri believes that the biggest challenge we will face in the future will be managing residual world pride. In particular, the US will need to develop a much greater appreciation of Chinese history and culture to understand their justified sense of resentment. They will need to be careful not to repeat the inexcusable arrogance and ignorance that categorised their approach to Iraq twenty years ago and display greater awareness that we now live in a multi-polar world which is rapidly descending into a Hobbesian nightmare of unrestrained selfishness and undiminished competition

As one of the most globalised countries in the world we also need to study the implications of this book very carefully. In some respects, the old Boston versus Berlin debate is now even more relevant. Since it was first aired our influence in both domains has declined. Joe Biden is likely to be the last American-Irish pol with any real interest in the old sod and we have failed to replace a previous generation of Irish civil servants at the heart of the EU. Our success in attracting Foreign Direct Investment, particularly from America, has damaged our relationship with both Boston and Berlin but we have no real option but to continue to attract as much mobile investment as we can. In the meantime, we might seek to strengthen our involvement in Hansa, a new version of the old Hanseatic League which we joined with little fanfare in 2018.  In addition to ourselves the new group includes Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania the Netherlands and Sweden.

Mark Henry’s exhaustive statistical study of Ireland’s progress during the first hundred years of independence showed that there had been a steady move in our behaviour and attitudes towards Nordic as opposed to Anglo-American norms. A determined effort to hasten the pace of that journey might be our best defence against a solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short future.

Westlessness, by Samir Puri, is published by Hodder & Stoughton.

8/12/2024

Sorry, No Houses

Maurice Earls writes: Eoghan Murphy, former housing minister and once the most unpopular man in Ireland, has recently published a political memoir. The purpose is to give his side of the story and let the world know that he is a decent human being who did his best in an impossible situation and that after four years he became politically and emotionally dehydrated and, as in the title of the book, Ran from Office. Not his fault!

Murphy, however, is an unreliable narrator. Not entirely his fault!

He had, and probably still has, a healthy ego and a great deal of self-belief. This is all fine. If young people were not convinced of their own significance, very little would happen in the world. There is also in his make-up, as he is at pains to communicate, an underlying decency. This is a quality which can be an overrated in politics, as if decency somehow excused error. After all, most people are reasonably decent but being in charge of the public good requires something more.

In Eoghan Murphy’s case, decency co-existed with political innocence, a dangerous cocktail.

His political naivety and ambition obscured any suspicion that becoming a Fine Gael housing minister (Fine Gael, you know, the privilege and property people) at a time when ever growing numbers of economically vulnerable men, women and children were homeless, was likely to be a hospital pass.

By the end he knew he had been through a meat grinder but he doesn’t seem to know just how or why that happened.

The historical background, in which he has absolutely no interest, is the key. Eoghan Murphy was born in 1982. He grew up and became an adult in one of the most confusing periods of Irish history. During that time anything remotely resembling a social, cultural or moral anchor became a helium balloon and floated away. We have a fascinating literature to show for it, but politics is a different matter. Politics without compass or anchor is a recipe for social disintegration.

Still wet behind the ears, Murphy emerged into the world of radical free market fanaticism, a phenomenon loosed on humanity by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. There followed decades when any politicians who were not completely onside with their own and the state’s irrelevance, were regarded as pathetic. Murphy and countless other young people absorbed the zeitgeist. Capital P political idealism was ridiculous. Those who might be useful in politics were people with good management and communication skills. It was no harm, given the way PR transfers work, if they happened to be decent people too.

Enter Eoghan Murphy from Sandymount carrying his packed lunch and a new pencil case.

Part of his motivation lay with the financial crash of 2008. It was clear to Eoghan and his pals that the dismal poltroons and assorted crumblies who were running things totally lacked essential management skills, as well as being badly dressed and deficient in ‘modern thinking’. Eoghan and his peers who had inhaled the Celtic Tiger fumes had assumed, and been led to believe by the poltroon-in-chief that this was forever and that history, if it had ever existed, was over.

The crash was a big big surprise.

What had all the wonderful education and the other perks been for if they were not going to move effortlessly into comfortable lives, they asked in outrage. Something had to be done to repair the damage caused by those ‘parochial’ Fianna Fáilers and the church and, and everything else that was totally out of touch.

Phone calls were made to old school chums who were keen to help Eoghan sort the mess.

Politics of course, doesn’t go away just because people who are at the cutting edge and wearing the right socks deem it unimportant. It merely sinks beneath the radar. The housing crisis that Eoghan was to solve was a direct consequence of radical market politics at work in Ireland. The state became inactive. It had once been very active, even under FG in a limited sort of way. The idea that the market had the power to solve all manner of problems was peddled 24/7. So, the state curtailed planning, it stopped building houses and sold off those built by an earlier deluded generation of politicians. And just as Mr Piketty described, assets began to move in the direction of the already privileged. And it wasn’t just assets. As the Central Statistics Office has just informed us, inequality levels in salaries and wages have galloped over the past decade of anti-society government.

Those who drew attention to such things since the 1980s were regarded as loonies. The left were ‘the left behind’ in a common jibe of the time.

One of the few books, perhaps the only one, mentioned by Murphy is Breaking the Mould, Stephen Collins’s celebration of the Progressive Democrats, Ireland’s effort at an ideologically self-conscious party of deregulation. Murphy doesn’t say quite what he liked about the book. Reflecting the mood of the times, he possibly thought of the PDs as ‘The Logical Party’. Thatcher had said there was no such thing as society. Although that pill was never fully digested here, it was in the feed. Why would you plan for something that didn’t exist?

Unburdened by conscious ideology, Eoghan Murphy did not ask how there could be a housing emergency in a free market economy. How could the hidden hand of the market permit such a thing? He was, after all, sincere and decent. The real marketeers knew it would take time, possibly a very long time, for the market to set things to rights. That was their portmanteau excuse. But Murphy just saw the misery and trauma of homelessness. He wanted to do something. He thought it was an emergency and thought an active state taking ownership of the crisis and using its resources to solve it would be the right course to follow. How weird is that?

As a problem-solver and a young man with a good quota of human empathy he suggested that the government should back a constitutional right to housing and that a national emergency should be declared. He trotted off to Leo and Paschal with his big idea. They patted him on the head and said ‘no, no, that won’t do at all’. ‘There were balance sheet and other issues to consider.’ The ‘nation’s financial stability’ was prized ‘above everything else’. ‘The public could not be exposed … and I eventually accepted their arguments.’ C’mon Murphs that’s going to cost a bundle! Get real.

At some level he began to understand that being in Fine Gael and being a Fine Gael minister was very far from a flag of convenience. It had political meaning. ‘I had lost my nerve to challenge the establishment. Because now we were the establishment.’ Or maybe it was all the fault of the deep state and his wonderful government had been  ‘captured by the system’. He remained confused and felt he had failed to do his job. This is to his credit, but he was clearly still suffering from political innocence. He should have expanded his reading matter.

Somewhat dazed, Eoghan returned to his office and began a series of futile endeavours to ‘solve’ the housing crisis. Alas, to no avail. He became like King Canute ordering the waves to retreat. The homeless figures kept rising. He became more and more stressed and anxious and unpopular. He couldn’t go on and he didn’t go on.

Now Eoghan Murphy is in London. One hopes he is enjoying a level of calm and tranquillity. Is it even possible that in retrospect he may come to reject Paschal and Leo’s argument that the state should not take ownership of the housing crisis and use its full resources to effect a solution?

Arguably, with the recent election results, alongside the obvious voter caution (Thank you Mr Trump) we are also witnessing the beginnings of the gilt wearing off the growth-for-growth’s-sake gingerbread in Ireland. Now that would be something.

Garret FitzGerald, a social democrat of the milder sort, once suggested we should ask ourselves what sort of society we would like to have in a prosperous Ireland. Few have asked that question in recent decades. But today more muscular Labour and Social Democrat TDs are beginning to ask it. Perhaps next time out and with the help of the Greens they can actually break the mould. There is a lot to be done. Maybe even Eoghan Murphy, on mature reflection, might decide to join in and lend a hand … or maybe not.

Running from Office, by Eoghan Murphy, is published by Eriu at €22.95, ISBN: 978-1804189023

5/12/2024

Boston Diary

James Moran writes: In November 2008 I was in New York City when Barack Obama was elected. The city felt absolutely electric. I can remember so clearly how, the day after the result, a young man serving sandwiches in a coffee shop dropped absolutely all of the behavioural codes of New York when I ordered my lunch to tell me ‘we sure have a great president don’t we?’ and then to grab both of my hands in an embrace of pure jubilation.

The antithesis of this feeling, of course, came in November 2016, when I was also in New York, and saw a devastating lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton. On that occasion the street vendors selling election-day merchandise, who had been there in great numbers eight years before, had vanished. Instead, the city felt resigned and flat. On the day of that election, I asked one cab driver if he felt excited about the vote, and he simply gave a sigh and rolled his eyes.

Still, at least in 2016 the election result felt like a bizarre moment. A fluke. A black-swan event. This 2024 event feels different – and more depressing – because the result, ultimately, feels willed and deliberately chosen. People have seen exactly what Trump is. They have seen it for years. And across every demographic Trump increased his numbers anyway. The people gave him a victory in the popular vote. They handed him all of the swing states. They wanted him to make America great again.

I find myself in the US again this autumn, although this time I’m working in chilled-out Boston rather than frenetic New York. The atmosphere here before the vote, I must say, felt more like 2016 than 2008. This area is a Democrat stronghold, the bluest of the blue, and yet before election day it felt as if there was next to no excitement at the prospect of the first female president, the first president of Indian heritage, etc. Most people I spoke to around here seemed more panicked about, or wearied by the thought of, what might be coming towards them down the tracks if Trump won. To be honest, in the days before the vote it felt like most people didn’t want to talk much about politics at all.

On election night I went to join some academic colleagues at the Massachusetts-Dems ‘Watch Party’, which was being held at the SoWa power station. This building is a Victorian-era hulk of industrial architecture that once powered railway transport for thousands of working people, but which has since been repurposed and turned into a gleaming conference centre in the midst of a hipster area of gastropubs and art galleries. In fact, as a metaphor for the Democratic Party it felt a little too much on the nose.

As soon as I arrived at this venue on election night, at about 8 pm, something felt a little off. I was greeted by someone who asked me if I was with the Finnish party. I said no, and was told that my British accent made them think that I’d be joining the large group of people from Finland in attendance. I was, in fact, meeting up with some Germans, but while I struggled to find those friends, I bumped into a group who had come over from France. Why were all of us Europeans here? Perhaps this election simply looks more glamorous than the distinctly less showbiz realm of Olaf Scholz and Keir Starmer.

As the evening wore on it became clear that there were, for sure, plenty of Americans here too. But they were almost exclusively very wealthy-looking and white. Or they had come with TV crews in the hope of reporting something interesting. We Europeans certainly outnumbered any group of colour. As I stood there, in this beautiful venue, I began to wonder. Has electoral tourism to the US become a thing now? And when we see people cheering the Democrats’ speechifying, are those audiences actually US voters? Because on the evidence of what I could see, the people in the hall did not look or sound like the average Bostonian at all.

Something that also surprised me was the sheer lavish giveaway of stuff at the event, which did not cost a cent to attend. In British and Irish elections the money is always so tight that there are few events of anything even vaguely resembling opulence, and during recent cycles there has even seen a dwindling of the old cardboard signs that used to adorn lamp-posts during campaigning. Americans, however, still burnish their lawn-signs with pride. And at the Watch Party there was a profusion of election paraphernalia. Free T-shirts. Fridge magnets. Coasters. And lots of beer and very fancy food given away to the various wealthy supporters, TV crews and curious Europeans in the hall.

But what was the point in the Dems handing out all of these goodies on election night? The voting had concluded in this state hours before. Before the election there had been much boasting about the Democrats having a one-billion-dollar war-chest that they were going to use to win this thing. But perhaps, I wondered as I tucked into an elaborate cheeseboard, it was possible to have a little too much money and to not quite know what to do with it.

At quite an early point in the Boston Watch Party, a series of high-profile politicians then took to the stage. The city’s likeable mayor, Michelle Wu, heavily pregnant, gave a chirpy speech. But notably she focused on the fact that ‘Massachusetts and Boston have made our voices heard’, and – when it came to thinking about the wider election –she simply stated the obvious, that we were ‘waiting to see’. The Boston congresswoman Ayanna Pressley then entered to the music of ‘Ain’t No Mountain High Enough’ and gave an upbeat declaration that ‘I am Black and proud’. The almost entirely white audience clapped and whooped in reply.

Then the main act, Senator Elizabeth Warren, took to the stage. She is, famously, the woman who Trump calls ‘Pocahontas’ in mocking reference – a racial slur really – about her one-time claim to Native-American ancestry. Warren spent a lot of her speech telling us that she ‘saw us’. She saw us if we were women who needed our reproductive rights defending, if we were trans, or if we were in a union. She did not, however, mention Harris at all during the speech, which felt ominous. It also felt ominous that Warren wrapped things up at such an early point in the evening. The VIP areas at the back of the hall likewise emptied out long before 10 pm. One of my colleagues wondered aloud, optimistically: perhaps there was an afterparty that they had all gone to? None of us liked to reply that Warren and other senior figures probably had access to some excellent exit-poll information, and if they had left already then that did not exactly bode well.

Senator Warren’s speech ended in an explosion of tickertape falling from the ceiling, but at that point the betting markets started putting Trump’s chances of winning at 75 per cent. By 10.30 pm this had gone up to 90 per cent. Results were now swinging against Harris so rapidly that the party at SoWa, in all honesty, felt like it had barely gotten started. The evening’s initial feelgood vibes had quickly evaporated. All hangover and no celebration.

Half an hour later, at 11 pm, the chair of the Massachusetts Dems gamely came onto the stage to tell us that the Watch Party was over and we had to leave. There were, he said, a lot of votes across the country still to be counted. He sounded forlorn. As we walked out through the gates, the TVs announced that Trump had won Iowa, a state that one influential poll had in delusional but much-fanfared style projected into Harris’s column during the final hours of the campaign.

‘Oh, should we recycle this?’ asked one of the Germans as we walked out, pointing to one of the expensive bamboo plates that had been provided for our meals, and which he was still holding in his hand. One of the venue’s staff looked at him as though he had lost his mind. ‘No, just put it in the trash with all of the others’

We all walked on past all the cars big as bars, and headed for home.

That day the temperature had peaked at 24 degrees Celsius in Boston, and despite the fact that every coffee chain had already started playing their Christmas music, the weather remained hot enough for shorts and sandals.

Trump was promising to ‘drill baby drill’. And the Massachusetts Democrats were giving away hundreds of glossy posters for an election that was lost, along with single-use wooden plates for a meal that had stuck in the gullet.

All was not well in America.

14/11/2024

Firing up the Crazies

Frank Freeman writes: I want to say to Trump supporters: ‘I’m sorry, but I won’t vote for a man who mocks handicapped people, who calls dead veterans “suckers and losers”, who says if you’re rich and famous you can sexually assault women and they won’t do anything about it, who sleeps with a porn star the night his wife is giving birth to their son, who incites violence at his rallies, who threatens to lock up his political opponents for the crime of opposing him, who is a big crybaby, whiner and sore loser, so fragile and such a wimp that he can’t admit losing, who sucks up to dictators and admires “Hitler’s generals” (presumably not the ones who tried to assassinate him), who brags about not paying taxes and who wants to bring back the concentration camp.’

But his supporters know all this: they know these things and yet support him. I suppose some of them believe it’s all slander, that the Deep State is out to get him and the liberal media makes this stuff up. Some (30 per cent) are true believers. They really believe all this, hook, line, and sinker. You can’t argue with them. They are all feeling and emotion, the main feeling being one of grievance, but also a lot of fear and a lot of racism and a desire to go back to the 1950s (when, in fact, corporate tax rates were way higher than now and helped pay for the Interstate Highway System). They really do want to make America white again. They believe all the conspiracy theories and that terrible things will happen if Harris is elected.

These are the ‘True Believer(s)’, as Eric Hoffer called them. I just retrieved my copy of his book The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements: there are so many underlined passages I don’t know where to start. His argument is that these people are bored/poor/frustrated, and a ‘mass movement’, which Trumpism is, provides them with community and meaning. George Saunders described (in a New Yorker essay) a man he was standing beside at a Trump rally bowing his head, clenching his fists and pumping them up and down and saying, yes, yes, yes over and over again. This is atavistic, primal, raw emotion.

Here’s Hoffer on page 44 of True Believer: ‘A rising mass movement attracts and holds a following not by its doctrine and promises but by the refuge it offers from the anxieties, barrenness and meaninglessness of an individual existence. It cures the poignantly frustrated not by conferring on them an absolute truth or by remedying the difficulties and abuses which made their lives miserable, but by freeing them from their ineffectual selves  and it does this by enfolding and absorbing them into a closely knit and exultant corporate whole’ (italics mine).

In other words, the mass movement does nothing to help them, it just pretends to. They don’t have adequate manufacturing jobs or adequate healthcare or affordable housing, but they get to hate the others causing all this trouble and be together.

These are the people who the Democratic Party left behind with trade agreements such as NAFTA, which caused a reverse migration of businesses across the border to Mexico. Men (mostly) who were used to having well-paid manufacturing jobs lost them; their wages had been going down (in real inflation-adjusted terms) since the 1970s. Clinton and the Democrats decided young professionals were their new base and neo-liberalism was born. As a husband of a successful businesswoman and a bookkeeper of said business, I have to say it seems to me we have to have the freedom to do our business, to make our daily bread, but we also have to regulate our way to level playing fields. And, as Thomas Piketty said, tax billionaires out of existence.

My wife, when I or the kids suggest some social programme often says, ‘Who’s going to pay for it?’ I think it was in that spirit that Clinton and the Democrats wooed business and young professionals. They dropped the ball, however, on the other side of the equation: your capitalism needs to pay for your socialism. The Democrats, content with their success and riches, forgot about the poor and the working class. And to the latter it always seems that everybody else is getting a piece of the pie. On radio and TV they hear support for gay marriage, for trans rights, for abortion rights, the cultural issues which they are ridiculed for opposing. The ridicule is what gets their goat.

Being from Texas and my family having migrated westward from South Carolina through the deep south, I have often felt that the last type of person you could mock on TV or radio was the poor white southerner. The lampoons of John Oliver and Stephen Colbert, though accurate factually, alienate my people only deeper into Trump’s la-la land. Making fun of the Appalachian kid wearing nothing but overalls is not decent nor a winning political strategy.

I’m not saying I am as my paternal grandfather was. Elmore Franklin Freeman was a redneck welder who hated all shades of people not white. (But he was my grandpa and bought me corn dogs and animal crackers and I loved him.) But, the thing is, he had a good job at Brown and Root in Houston. If he had been younger, he might have been one of those left behind by the Democrats. The hatred and racism were still there though, and a lot of that was class-driven.

About the cultural issues, I am not sure what to say. I have come around to supporting gay marriage, trans rights, abortion rights, the rights of migrants. I have written in the Dublin Review of Books about my disillusionment with conservatism. Now I am a Democrat, something I never thought I’d be. Trump did it. I was an Independent (or Undeclared as they say here in Maine) but quickly declared Democrat when Trump got on his crazy train. I, who had been a William F Buckley, Russell Kirk conservative, said this is ludicrous and dangerous; I can’t be a part of this. And now I wonder if the recent book It Was All a Lie is true, and the movement I supported because of moral reasons (pro-life, law and order, fiscal restraint, discipline, integrity), was really racist and nationalist at its core, that all this concern about keeping traditional values was really, all along, a racist project just decked out in the robes of Greece and Rome (not to mention the liturgical robes of various churches). Where is the party I used to belong to? Where has it gone? Perhaps it was never there.

With Trump the scales fell from my eyes and I saw thinkers/politicians I had once respected (Roger Kimball, editor, founder of The New Criterion, Victor Davis Hanson, Rick Santorum, Marco Rubio) suddenly kowtowing to Fearless Leader Trump. What? The party of traditional values hitching their wagon to such an obvious charlatan, snake-oil salesman, bully  and grifter? I don’t get it.

What happened was that Trump instinctively tapped into the simmering anger of poor uneducated whites who felt left behind (and sometimes ridiculed) by Democrats, and the others, (educated wealthy and/or under-the-surface racist whites) jumped on for the ride. Cardinal George Pell said Trump was a barbarian, ‘but he’s our barbarian’. Well said. Now what is anybody going to do about it? There is no Republican Party any more; it’s just Trump, the Boss, Big Brother, Fearless Leader etc. Whatever he says goes. The party of traditional values and civilisation has morphed into the party of barbarism and cruelty. What I can’t figure out is the thinking of those who support Trump but are not True Believers. The ones who are educated, have lucrative jobs, are upwardly mobile and the rest of it, who live in the suburbs and send their kids to university. What are they thinking? Don’t they have eyes to see? To me it seems they have struck a deal with the devil. We will support this barbarian because he will help us get what we want: the repeal of Roe v. Wade, prayer in schools, lower taxes, a border wall (to keep out all the Mexicans who mow our lawns and pick our fields and roof our houses?). They are saying something which, when I was a conservative, I thought was anathema, that the ends justifies the means.

I used to be what we called ‘pro-life’. I walked in a ‘pro-life’ rally and the only hatred I saw was from the people screaming at us from the Boston sidewalks. I prayed the rosary once or twice outside abortion clinics. But even then I would never have been able to approach a woman and tell her what to do. Could not, like the man I heard on the radio, yell out to a woman ‘Please don’t kill your baby!’ Now I think it’s simply none of my business. It’s between a woman and her doctor. My brother, an obstetrician/gynaecologist, believes abortion should be legal up to viability He asked me once ‘Should you let a baby be born whose heart is outside its chest?’

For me this is all very confusing and displacing, personally and politically. It feels like living in two different worlds: the world of everyday going to work, going to the grocery store, going to the pub, etc. the quotidian; and the world in our heads which consists of what we watch and read and listen to online. My neighbour is a Trump supporter. He is an avid hunter, which is not unusual in Maine, and we get along fine. We talk about work and family, and what’s going on in the neighborhood. But when we venture into politics, it’s as if we are from two different planets. He shoots down my arguments with his YouTube videos, which I see as bullshit conspiracy thinking; whatever I say is to him fake news or deep state bullshit, what ‘they’ want me to believe.

Why is this the case? Apart, that is, from the obvious fact of the omnipresence of the Internet and that algorithms drive our news feeds in the way we’re already leaning? It all changed in 2016. Before that year, whether I was conservative or independent, I got in plenty of political discussions and sometimes things got heated but there was not the same rancour and venom as now, not the sense of an unbridgeable gulf between the two sides. Everything changed here, in America at least, because of one man, Donald Trump. He sows division and hatred, he polarises. I told a family member this (a family member who supports Trump but is not a True Believer) and he hemmed and hawed but did not outright deny it. Trump is the reason, that in America when you’re at a party everyone will refrain from talking politics until it’s clear, by various conversational clues, what the person you’re talking to thinks.

If Trump has any positive qualities one might be that despite the continuous stream of lies he tells, he does once in a while tell a home truth, something obvious but which no one else will say. The one I remember was in a Republican primary debate when he said because he was rich he didn’t have to suck up to the drug companies like Jeb Bush did because Jeb had taken big donations from pharmaceutical companies – which left Jeb sputtering.

But as we’ve seen recently with the abortion issue, he is protean: he has no principles except the lust for power. Whether this makes him more or less dangerous, I don’t know. He does not seem to want to use non-Aryan races as slave labourers, for instance. However, he appears to want to herd millions of immigrants into detention camps. But will he really? Who would pay for it? Is he just saying this to, in John McCain’s phrase, to ‘fire up the crazies’?

Sometimes, thinking about our politics, I wonder: didn’t these Trump supporters watch those old movies about World War Two? Don’t they remember the part about the Nazis being the bad guys? Don’t they see the similarities between their ideology and that of the Nazis? Perhaps we have let our guard down. Perhaps we thought (I know I did) it could never happen here. Because this was America. I remember fondly a scene from the movie The Americanization of Emily when Englishwoman Emily makes a snide remark to her American lover and he responds: ‘You Europeans think you are superior to us Americans but here we are fighting for you (World War Two) and we never came up with a Stalin, a Hitler or a Mussolini. Well, we can’t quite say that anymore, though Trump reminds me more of Mussolini than Hitler.

I remember the feeling of dread in the pit of my stomach when I turned on my car radio on the afternoon of January 6th, 2021 and heard news of the riot at the Capitol. It was so hard to believe. To take in. I kept shaking my head and saying, ‘What?’ What was the matter with these people? Bill Barr, whom I’m not very fond of, who says Trump is unfit to hold office, but will nevertheless vote for him (because Democrats are so evil? Because more gay people will marry? Because more women be able to make their own healthcare choices? Because more drag queens will read stories at the local library?), even Bill Barr said there was not enough fraud to change the election outcome and that Trump’s lawyers were ‘clowns’. Bye bye Bill.

I want to tell Trump supporters that if he wins, the economy will tank. Which will be bad for all of us. Our economy runs on our immigrant population. I am hoping that Harris will win and that Trump won’t be able to get into power through the connivance of the House of Representatives and/or the Supreme Court. And if I’m disappointed in that hope I hope that President Trump will not do half of what he promises to do because of the courts or societal revolt – I, for one, will be ready to man the barricades – or because he over-promised and did not mean half of it.

I do not like living in ‘interesting times’.

2/11/2024

The Monster in your Pocket

John Fanning writes: During the last decade there has been widespread coverage of survey results and medical reports dealing with an increase in mental health issues among young people, or Gen Z as the headline writers prefer.

Little surprise then that a substantial new book on the subject, The Anxious Generation, by social psychologist and New York University lecturer Jonathan Haidt has become a worldwide bestseller, attracting mostly favourable reviews in prestigious publications and clocking up an impressive thirty-plus pages of reviews and comment on Google.

The first part of Haidt’s book presents a wealth of convincing detail on the damage being done to adolescents by overexposure to mobile phones. Increased levels of anxiety and rates of depression have coincided with their ubiquitous use among the first generation in history to go through puberty with a portal in their pockets distracting them away families and friends into an alternative universe, sometimes attractive and seductive but often unsuitable for adolescents. Hence the book’s sub-title: ‘The Great Rewiring of Childhood’.

As a result of this overexposure, young people are being forced into becoming their own brand managers. always thinking ahead about the effect of the content and photos they receive and send themselves. They also must dissect the continuous prattle of the so-called ‘influencers’ whose main talent is an ability to attract masses of young people to follow their dubious and self-serving advice.

Haidt is relentless in outlining the damage to young people’s lives: social deprivation, through living life in an alternative universe; sleep deprivation, from too much time spent on social media platforms; attention fragmentation, since the nature of the platforms encourages constant hopping from one subject to another, leading finally to addiction. Social media may in theory connect us to everyone else in the world, but it distances us from the people around us; the smartphone is the modern-day hypodermic needle delivering digital dopamine to a new generation.

The author’s second target is ‘safetyism’; the over-cosseting of young people from independent contact with the outside world. At the same time as they are being given free access to the online world, concerned parents are over-protecting children from the real world. Surveys show that ‘free play’, unstructured time with friends engaging in activities freely chosen by participants, is in decline. The continuous round of summer camps in Ireland during the school holidays is a good example of this trend. At a wider level we have also seen a decline in the significance of long-established traditional rituals designed to mark the transition from childhood to adulthood. Although celebratory, these were also solemn rites of passage unlike today’s Holy Communion and Confirmation consumer-fests.

In the second half of the book Haidt discusses what action can be taken by governments, parents and teachers to combat the problem. Several proposals are put forward for how governments could play a more active role, including asserting a duty of care and raising the age of external verification to sixteen, an end to punishing parents for giving children real world freedom, the designing of more child-friendly public spaces and the introduction of more sports development schemes. He advises schools to introduce more stringent bans on mobile phone usage and parents to make children help more in the home. These are all very well-intentioned and some are being openly discussed in Ireland but they are unlikely to affect the level of societal change that will be necessary.

Haidt also considers several spiritual exercises derived from ancient traditions, which will no doubt have some readers eye-rolling, but perhaps because our current predicament is so precarious the word ‘spirituality’ is beginning to make regular appearances in contemporary comment. Some of this will be familiar, particularly the Buddhist practice of meditation. The digital world demands immersion, distraction and collaboration; what we need is more detachment, concentration and silence. Religions used to mark off certain times of the year as sacred; Haidt believes we need to reconnect with the rhythms of the calendar and our communities and ensure more regular exposure to the grandeur of nature: he refers to Pascal’s belief that there is ‘a God-shaped hole’ in every human heart yearning for meaning, connection and human elevation.

Doubtless implementing all of these recommendations would help alleviate some of the problems outlined by Haidt but I can’t see our Silicon Valley overlords losing much sleep over this book. He does refer to their egregious behaviour, their denials, obfuscation and well-funded public relations campaigns when dealing with critics. Meanwhile the relentless search for even greater profitability continues, Whistleblower Frances Haugen has revealed that tech platforms have been studying how to attract users as young as four using artificial intelligence to select content most likely to keep them hooked. Meanwhile they continue to display complete contempt for us ‘Earthlings’. When Mark Zuckerberg was once asked why people allowed their data to be freely used to attract more advertising he replied, ‘dumb fucks’.

Certainly older ‘dumb fucks’ like me need to be wary of criticising a technology we don’t understand while criticising a generation we can’t control. Socrates worried that the spread of the ability to write would erode people memories; my mother in the 1950s worried that listening to Radio Luxembourg would damage my chances of a good Inter. Plus ça change.

But there are other reasons not to lose heart. Previously powerful addictive categories are losing their appeal among young people; there have been significant declines in their smoking and drinking behaviour. The myriad annual cultural and rock festivals, like Electric Picnic, attract growing numbers engaged in communal celebration. Perhaps we are witnessing a revolt of the ‘dumb fucks’?

26/10/2024